Bettors better keep an eye on big hitters
In the summer of 2020, many of the world’s top professional golfers — though admittedly not the highest tier of the elite, most of which chose to enjoy a late-season off week — returned to Detroit Golf Club for the second edition of the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
With the initial tournament under their belts, players now had a clearer understanding of the skill set needed to find success on this old Donald Ross track.
As one of them told me before that week started, “This is the most Bryson course ever.”
At the time, Bryson DeChambeau was at the peak of his powers, quite literally, using his newfound bulk to drive the ball massive distances off the tee.
And so, that assessment of the host venue didn’t take much sleuthing. It essentially translated to: This is a bomb and gouge setup, so the biggest hitters have the biggest advantage.
Even though it didn’t play out this way in that first edition of the event in 2019, with Nate Lashley, a below-PGA Touraverage driver of the ball, winning by a half-dozen strokes, talent off the tee has been one of the greatest determining factors of success on this 7,325-yard course ever since.
Prophetic as that aforementioned player was, DeChambeau captured the 2020 event as a 6/1 favorite. During that season, he ranked first in both Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and Driving Distance. The player who finished runner-up that week, Matthew Wolff, was 12th and ninth in those two categories, respectively.
The next year, Cam Davis won his first title in Detroit during a season in which he was 19th off the tee and 32nd in distance. Joaquin Niemann, one of two runners-up, ranked 13th and 14th in those two metrics.
Last year, though, might’ve been the greatest showcase yet of the delineation between the best drivers in the field and everyone else. Tony Finau earned a convincing five-stroke victory over Cameron Young, Patrick Cantlay and Taylor Pendrith. Each of those four players ranked inside the top
17 in SG: Off the Tee for the season and among the top 40 in distance.
All of which offers a strong suggestion for this week’s festivities at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
As the PGA Tour extends into the dog days between the last regular-season designated event and the final major championship, I’ll be targeting underrated and unheralded SG: Off the Tee players for my betting cards.
None of this means a Lashley type can’t win here again, but recent history has shown an overwhelming edge toward those who have a built-in advantage with the big stick.
A warning before we get there: This one isn’t for the faint of heart, as there’s plenty of ugliness up and down the board.
Outright winner
Short odds: Ludvig Aberg (40/1)
There are plenty of big names and worthy candidates near the top of this week’s odds board, and I won’t deny that I might have a small outright play on Justin Thomas, Sungjae Im or Cam Davis by the time Thursday morning rolls around, but my favorite shortnumbered outright for this event is longer than usual.
A former No. 1-ranked amateur in the world, Aberg isn’t just talented, he’s exactly what we’re seeking this week — a guy who’s freakishly long off the tee without losing much accuracy, which has led to a positive Strokes Gained number with his driver in five starts against professional fields this year.
The Swede has superstar written all over him, and he’s won at every level he’s played. We’ve already seen Rose Zhang win immediately as a professional on the LPGA Tour, while Adrien Dumont de Chassart and Ricky Castillo have done so on the Korn Ferry circuit. Don’t be surprised if — or perhaps when —
Aberg follows that trend.
Long odds: Austin Eckroat (50/1)
The Oklahoma State product finished T10 at the U.S. Open and a respectable T24 at the Travelers Championship. He hasn’t finished outside the top 30 in his past five starts and owns a pair of top-five finishes in his last nine, so there exists a nice ceiling/floor combo which suggests he’s not just a strong candidate for outright tickets, but props and DFS, as well.