Sawx join Fish Under the sea
I adore how the new MLB scheduling rules give us more interleague matchups. The Marlins and Red Sox haven’t played each other often, even though these games profile as highly entertaining. I don’t like Rob Manfred, but I’m grateful to him for more interleague Fish-Sox matchups.
In this game, I’m eyeing a tantalizing starting pitching matchup.
Miami’s Jesus Luzardo is putting together one of the better seasons of his career behind a higher-velocity four-seam fastball that now regularly hits 97 mph. He pairs it with a slider that has a 50 percent whiff rate this year. Luzardo has a 3.00 ERA and 25 strikeouts over his past four starts.
Boston’s Brayan Bello has broken out as a top-tier starting pitcher. Bello’s sinker-change mix forces a unique combination of whiffs and ground balls. Over his past 10 starts, the young righty has posted a 2.45 ERA and 57 percent ground-ball rate.
Behind these high-upside starting pitchers are two high-upside bullpens. The Marlins rank fourth in reliever ERA over the past two weeks (2.63) behind breakout seasons from AJ Puk, Andrew Nardi and Steven Okert. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have rejuvenated their bullpen behind setup man Chris Martin and closer Kenley Jansen.
So, while the Marlins and Red Sox lineups have been crushing the baseball all year long, the real entertainment value in this matchup lies on the mound. Therefore, I’ll bet on the Under, buying into my relatively high expectations for Luzardo, Bello, Puk, Nardi, Okert, Martin, Jansen and Co.
THE PLAY: Marlins vs. Red Sox Under 9.5 runs.
Tanner McGrath analyzes baseball for Action Network.