Gordon can Poke holes in Sooners

Teams with College Football Playoff aspirations are starting to play tight, the weather is beginning to get dicey and upsets are becoming more routine.

Among my college football best bets for Week 10, I have one ranked matchup right off the bat that could produce a top-10 upset.

Let’s dive right in.

Oklahoma at Oklahoma State

Recommendation: OSU +6: The 118th Bedlam game could be the last, making for an electric environment at Boone Pickens Stadium. Pair that with the Cowboys’ inspired play in the past month and you’ll start to understand why they’re a great situation play this week as a home underdog.

Between the lines, this game will be in the hands of Ollie Gordon II. The sophomore tailback has put the whole team on his back following a humbling home loss to South Alabama in September. In the past five games, he’s rushed for 978 yards (195.6 ypg), scored nine total touchdowns and fumbled just once.

That should be very concerning for an Oklahoma defense that is leaking oil.

The Sooners’ glaring weakness on defense has been their inability to limit big runs (105th in explosives allowed). Gordon II, who has long runs of 75, 71, 53 and 42 yards in recent games, is primed to explode. If he does, it’ll be up to the Pokes’ defense to do the rest of the work.

Oklahoma State has been a fantastic home ’dog under

Mike Gundy in recent years, covering spreads at an 89 percent clip since 2016 (8-1 ATS).

Florida Atlantic at UAB

Recommendation: FAU +1: Trent Dilfer claimed this spring that God persuaded him to coach UAB. Apparently, the Big Guy upstairs didn’t specify that he wanted him to coach the defense, too. The Blazers are 132nd (out of 133 FBS teams) in defensive success rate. There isn’t a worse run defense in America. That’s great news for a balanced FAU offense that will lean on senior running back Larry McCammon III on Saturday.

The difference in this game will be Daniel Richardson. The FAU quarterback is a boom-or-bust player. In his last three starts, he’s posted QBRs of 94.3, 10.4 and 79.6. If he’s dialed in against this lowly UAB defense, the Owls will win going away and keep their AAC title hopes alive.

Georgia Southern at Texas State

Recommendation: Over 69.5: Much was made in the offseason about the new clock rules in college football that did away with first-down stoppages before the final two minutes of each half. As a result, blindly backing Unders has been more profitable than usual. Only 59 teams (44.3%) at the FBS level have cashed more Overs than Unders this season.

So when I target Overs, particularly games with huge totals like this one, I need three conditions: Lightning-quick pace on both sides. Pass-happy offenses. Ghastly defenses. It’s a trifecta here between the Eagles and Bobcats. Georgia Southern is second in plays per game at 81.1, and Texas State isn’t far behind at 75.6 (16th). Davis Brin has attempted 45 or more passes in five of his last seven starts for GSU, and TSU’s T.J. Finley averages 37 attempts per game in SBC play.

And finally, these defenses give up huge plays left and right. Georgia Southern blitzes a ton, and as a result, the Eagles give up explosive runs at the 119thworst clip in the country. Texas State is even worse when it comes to defending big plays through the air (127th). This has shootout written all over it.

Next Friday, Michael Calabrese will transition to college basketball coverage with daily plays and futures to add to your betting portfolio.