Iron-tough Auburn can hang with Alabama
It’s hard to see Auburn keeping it close against Alabama, but weird things happen in the Iron Bowl. Over the past 11 years, the home team in this rivalry is 9-2 straight up and 9-1-1 against the spread.
Since 2005, the Crimson Tide are 2-7 ATS at JordanHare Stadium. Alabama’s won two straight against Auburn but failed to cover in both games, winning by two as 20-point favorites at Jordan-Hare in 2021.
Meanwhile, the situational spot screams Auburn.
The Tigers are coming off one of the most embarrassing losses in program history, losing 31-10 at home against New Mexico State.
But they were likely looking ahead to this game. And this week could be a bounce-back spot for War Eagle.
Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide already have punched their ticket to the SEC Championship game, and they could be caught looking ahead to that game against this weekend.
The Tide come out sleepy, the Tigers come out with their hair on fire, and the Iron Bowl gods work their voodoo, resulting in Auburn keeping this game within two scores.
The pick: Auburn +13.5. ILLINOIS (-5.5) over Northwestern: Northwestern has put together a remarkable season. Many left the Wildcats for dead after the Pat Fitzgerald scandal. But interim coach David Braun willed his team to victories and bowl eligibility after beating Wisconsin in Week 11 and Purdue in Week 12.
Illinois hasn’t yet reached bowl eligibility, falling to 5-6 last week with a two-point loss to Iowa. So, from a motivational perspective, Illinois has a clear advantage here. It’s also a good buy-low, sellhigh spot.
We can bet on a bounceback performance from quarterback John Paddock and the Illini, who will face a significant step down in defensive competition after grinding against the Hawkeyes last week.
And we can bet on a letdown performance from Northwestern, which is due to drop one after consecutive victories.
Plus, the Wildcats are a tad overvalued at 6-5. They were lucky in wins against Maryland and Minnesota, and their +8 net turnover margin is a part of that.
I’m betting that a fired-up Illinois squad rips through an overvalued, sleepy Northwestern one.
UNLV (-2.5) over San Jose State: The Spartans started the season 1-5 before winning five straight. So, they’re due for a loss. I’m betting they drop one against a dominant UNLV squad, which will host the Moutain West Championship game with a win — talk about motivation.
UNLV’s Go-Go offense pairs an old-school option rush attack with newschool west-coast vertical passing principals — basically, the Rebels run the ball to set up deep passing shots.
SJSU is among the worst rush defenses in the country, ranking in the bottom 10 nationally in Rush Success Rate and EPA per Rush allowed.
UNLV will run all over this SJSU front, opening up the whole offense in a dominant victory.
LAST WEEK: 1-2. Army (W), Stanford (L), Oregon State (L).
2023 SEASON: 14-19.