CAN’T SIT IT OUT
Opt-outs, transfers don’t end bowl fun
This is Part 2 of the Post Action College Bowl Guide.
Sometimes, it seems foolish to risk hard-earned money on bowl games. Dozens of teams show up after multiple weeks off, unrecognizable from the groups that spent the fall together. Coaches are gone. Stars have too much to lose to show up. Backups and role players are weighing offers in the transfer portal.
So, why even bother making predictions?
Because it beats the alternative.
Military
Tulane (+10.5) over Virginia Tech: By now — after watching the past few weeks, after watching the past few years of games impacted by optouts — you should know not to overreact to the ab- sence of any coach or player this time of year. Tulane will be without head coach Willie Fritz and quarterback Michael Pratt, but the Green Wave will have much of their 11-win core, which took down Caleb Williams and USC in last season’s Cotton Bowl. Backup quarterback Kai Horton has seen few snaps, but has made the most of them, leading Tulane to an overtime win at Houston last year and during a close battle against No. 11 Ole Miss this season.
Duke’s Mayo
North Carolina (+6.5) over West Virginia: Drake Maye is off to prepare for his selection as a toptwo pick in the NFL draft, triggering overwhelming action on the Mountaineers. Yet, the line hasn’t budged. North Carolina will still put up points, with the nation’s fifth-leading rusher (Omarion Hampton) and a dual-threat quarterback — “I feel like I can do everything,” Conner Harrell said. “West Virginia doesn’t have much film, they’re going to have a tough time, not really knowing.” — going against the nation’s 79th-ranked defense.
Holiday
Louisville (-7) over USC: The Trojans have allowed an average of 42.4 points over their past eight games. Best of luck keeping pace without a former Heisman-winning quarterback (Williams), as well as the team’s leading rusher (Marshawn Lloyd) and receiver (Brenden Rice).
Texas
Oklahoma State (-2) over Texas A&M: Continuity counts for something. While the Cowboys — who have won five of their past seven bowl games under Mike Gundy — will have virtually their entire roster available, Jimbo Fisher’s former team will be missing double-digit players who have either opted out or entered the transfer portal, including their starting quarterback and tight end, top two receivers, leading tackler, three cornerbacks and a pair of five-star defensive linemen from their top-10 defense.
Fenway
Boston College (+10) over
SMU: The Mustangs finished one spot behind Liberty, missing a chance to make a statement in the Fiesta Bowl against Oregon. Instead, they’ll make a 1,700-mile trip without their injured quarterback to shiver during a de facto road game.
Pinstripe
Rutgers (+1) over Miami: Speaking of southern teams making long trips to the Northeast to appear in a low-stakes game with little to gain. The Hurricanes — who lost their 2018 trip to The Bronx, 35-3, to Wisconsin — will be forced to use firstyear, third-string quarterback Jacurri Williams against the nation’s 17th-ranked pass defense.
Pop-Tarts
Kansas State (-2.5) over NC State: Predicting bowl games has become increasingly difficult in this era, but motivation remains a massive factor. Few players are more ready to announce their presence than Wildcats freshman backup Avery Johnson, who was electric in limited snaps this season. In a win over Texas Tech, he completed 8 of
9 passes and rushed for 90 yards and five touchdowns.
Alamo
Oklahoma (+2.5) over Arizona: The world is backing the Wildcats after the departure of quarterback Dillon Gabriel, but the Sooners (10-2) still have the more talented squad, including five-star recruit Jackson Arnold under center. Arizona has won its past six games, but only one came against a team that is currently ranked.
Gator
Kentucky (+4.5) over Clemson: The Tigers’ worst team in 13 years — weakened by opt-outs and the transfer portal — can’t be trusted. This game means far more to the Wildcats, who have earned a bowl victory in four of the past five years, including two outright upsets, under Mark Stoops.
Sun
Notre Dame (-6.5) over Oregon State: Neither team will look familiar, but the Beavers are in greater disarray. Oregon State’s final game as a member of the Pac-12 — played without head coach Jonathan Smith and star running back Damien Martinez, who was suspended following a DUI arrest — will be led by third-string quarterback Ben Gulbranson, who has thrown one pass this season and threw four interceptions and zero touchdowns in two games against ranked teams last season.
Liberty
Memphis (+9.5) over Iowa State: The Tigers’ three losses this season — all against ranked teams — came by an average of seven points. Don’t expect the seventhhighest scoring team in the nation to get run out of its own building.
Cotton
Missouri (+1) over Ohio State:
It won’t be hard to decipher which team wants it more. While Ryan Day doesn’t know how many of his stars will be available, the Tigers will be playing their biggest game in a decade.
Peach
Penn State (-4) over Ole Miss:
No Michigan? No Ohio State? No problem. The Nittany Lions have won their past 21 games against teams that aren’t the Big Ten’s juggernauts. Lane Kiffin is 2-15 all-time against top-10 teams.
Music City
Auburn (-7) over Maryland: A strong pass rush and secondary awaits whichever Maryland backup receives his first meaningful college snaps in place of Taulia Tagovailoa. The Terps’ 103rd-ranked ground game won’t offer any support.
Orange
Florida State (+16.5) over
Georgia: Opt-outs — including star receiver Keon Coleman, running back Trey Benson and sack leader Jared Verse — will rob the Seminoles of their chance to prove the committee wrong, but the Bulldogs have covered only four of 13 games this season. In Kirby Smart’s four non-playoff bowl games, Georgia is 1-3 against the spread, twice failing to cover double-digit lines.
Arizona
Toledo (+3.5) over Wyoming: The Rockets reeled off 11 straight wins between losses in the season opener and the MAC title game, going 5-1 against bowl teams. The Cowboys are 0-3 against top-25 rushing teams. Toledo is ranked ninth, averaging over 200 yards per game.
ReliaQuest
LSU (-10) over Wisconsin: The Tigers will be without the Heisman Trophy winner, but the Badgers’ unreliable offense has been hit even harder by absences. Luke Fickell’s first season is certain to end with more disappointment and without one win against a team with a winning record.
Fiesta
Liberty (+17.5) over Oregon:
Yes, the Flames played the easiest schedule in college football, but this is a lot of cushion to give to an undefeated team that averages more than 40 points, has the potential to run clock with the nation’s top rushing attack and has a massive edge in motivation, taking on a disappointed potential playoff team that won’t be at full strength.
Citrus
Iowa (+8) over Tennessee:
Kirk Ferentz will be ready, having won four of his past five bowl appearances. The defense will be, too, having surrendered less than 17 points to every team except two top-10 opponents (Michigan, Penn State).
Rose
Michigan (-1.5) over Alabama: It’s impossible to find a better setting or a better matchup for a college football game. History sides with Nick Saban, but he’s banking on his lowest-scoring offense in 14 years to take down the best defense in the country. The Wolverines have been the most dominant and consistent team in the nation this season. If not for an illogical decision by a ratings-driven committee, the Crimson Tide wouldn’t even be here.
Sugar
Washington (+4) over Texas:
This is the day the Huskies finally earn respect. Washington has won 20 straight games — including last season’s Alamo Bowl over the Longhorns — under secondyear coach Kalen DeBoer, winning the best conference in the country with four wins over top-20 teams. Texas will keep it close in a shootout, but ultimately fall to the best offense it has faced since Oklahoma, which handed the Longhorns their lone loss.
Best bets: Penn State, Iowa, Michigan
This season: 111-107-4 (21-23-1) (entering Tuesday)
2014-22 record: 1,150-1,082-25
hkussoy@nypost.com