Tyreek Over? Hill yeah!
The penultimate game of the NFL regular season comes Sunday night when the surging Bills head to Miami in a high-stakes divisional bout. The winner secures the AFC East crown and No. 2 seed. More importantly, it’s a homefield advantage early on in the playoffs.
The Dolphins have been riddled with injuries at the tail end of the season. They’ve lost linebackers Jaelen Phillips and Bradley Chubb for the season. Cornerback Xavien Howard will not play, and running back Raheem Mostert and wide receiver Jaylen Waddle carry questionable tags into the prime-time matchup.
Knowing this laundry list of injuries and the importance of this game, I am looking toward Miami receiver Tyreek Hill and his receiving yards prop. This is a statement game for Hill, who also has battled an ankle injury in recent weeks. The receiver, once primed for the first 2,000-yard season, has failed to reach the century mark in each of his past three games — but I expect that to change against the Bills.
For one, let’s look at head coach Mike McDaniel. If there’s one thing about this Dolphins offense, it’s that consistent pre-snap shifts and motions help give his skill players a head start. It’s paid dividends for a receiver like Hill, who has broken a 20-plus-yard reception in every game but two and a 35-plus in 50 percent of games played.
There was a stretch where Hill broke 100-plus total receiving yards in six of eight — one of those games he finished with 88 yards. His current prop for “Sunday Night Football” sits at 92.5 yards. His receptions prop of 6.5 feels a bit short, too.
The last time Miami faced Buffalo, the Dolphins line was not ready for the pressure of the Bills pass rush. Tua Tagovailoa was sacked four times and threw an interception. Hill was held to 58 receiving yards on just five targets.
I’m expecting a different Dolphins team in Week 18. That previous matchup was a horrible spot for Miami, fresh off its 70-point performance against the Broncos. Now they return to Hard Rock Stadium with revenge on their mind.
Hill is a gadget receiver who is impossible to cover because of his constant pre-snap motion. He can line up in the slot, in the backfield or out wide, it doesn’t matter. Not only is he the fastest player on the field — he’s nicknamed “The Cheetah” for a reason — but the Dolphins force-feed him the ball. Normally because he’s always open.
Even with the Bills’ surging defense of late, this is a perfect buy spot for Hill. They run zone about 75 percent of the time, and Hill has a staggering 3.88 yards-per-route-run rate against zone.
This is a do-or-die, lay-it-all-out-onthe-field type of game for the Dolphins. Their struggles against teams above .500 over the past two seasons has been magnified now that the AFC East is up for grabs. A division once seemingly locked up as heavy favorites has turned into Miami being the underdogs on its home field.
In the past two weeks, against the Ravens and Cowboys, Hill was targeted an average of 13 times per game. That number should remain steady against a Bills pass defense that has been trending up, in what could be a pass-heavy game script for Miami.
We’ve seen Hill put up video game numbers in the past. Now it’s time for him to do it with the cameras bright and the stakes as high as ever. Back Hill to make a statement.