How the East is won
Bills-Fins rematch to decide division
THE 272ND and final game of the NFL regular season is the most important of Week 18. The 10-6 Bills playing at the 11-5 Dolphins for the AFC East title Sunday night at Hard Rock Stadium seemed unlikely a month ago when Buffalo was 6-6 and seemingly having lost its way despite winning the division the previous three years.
The Bills’ season has been as turbulent as the Western New York winters are brutal — with injuries to key starters to the firing of offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey to the reports revealing controversial insensitive comments allegedly made four years ago by head coach Sean McDermott about 9/11, praising the hijackers for their coordination during a team meeting.
Now, here the Bills are playing for their fourth consecutive AFC East title and a No. 2 seed in the playoffs. In a fascinating twist, the Bills also could be eliminated from the postseason with a loss plus the Steelers and Jaguars both winning their games.
A Dolphins loss would drop them to the No. 6 seed and likely would force Miami to have to win three road playoff games to reach the Super Bowl. The Dolphins, who lead the league in points scored, are 7-1 at Hard Rock Stadium. If they win, the Dolphins wouldn’t have to go on the road during the playoffs until potentially the AFC Championship game.
Miami, though, has defeated the Bills just once in the past 11 meetings. And the Dolphins enter this game with their own issues — most recently a 56-19 loss last week at Baltimore. Miami, too, lost at Buffalo, 48-20, in the teams’ first meeting.
The Dolphins also have had problems playing teams with winning records this season. They have a 1-4 mark against teams which currently have a winning record and have been outscored by an average of 35.2-18.4 in those games, with the only win a 22-20 decision over Dallas.
The fact the Dolphins have lost four of five to teams with winning teams, and the fact that in their 16 games they have played just five winning teams, raises speculation that they’re a soft team.
Further complicating matters is the series of injuries the Dolphins are dealing with. No. 2 receiver Jaylen Waddle (high ankle sprain) and top running back Raheem Mostert (knee) were both out last week.
The Dolphins also lost pass rusher Bradley Chubb for the rest of the season to a knee injury suffered late in the loss to the Ravens, and linebacker Jaelan Phillips (Achilles tendon) is out. Cornerback Xavien Howard (foot) will also miss the game.
“Regardless of what we’re dealing with personally at home, or an injury to our body, this game is going to kick off when it kicks off and it’s going to go down,” Miami veteran left tackle Terron Armstead told reporters this week. The Dolphins have lost only once at home so far this season — 28-27 to Tennessee when Miami blew a 14-point lead with three minutes remaining.
One concern for Miami in this game is how its defense failed to contain Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson. Buffalo’s Josh Allen has similar dual-threat passrun skills to Jackson. Allen has a team-leading 15 rushing TDs, one short of matching the team’s season record set in a 14-game season by O.J. Simpson in 1975.
But Buffalo enters the game with questions offensively surrounding the mysterious lack of production and playing time of top receiver Stefon Diggs in recent weeks. In the past three games, Diggs has spent 83 of Buffalo’s 192 offensive snaps on the sideline. He played just 45 of 69 snaps in last week’s unimpressive 27-21 win over lowly New England. In the first 10 games, Diggs had 73 catches for 868 yards and seven TDs. In his past six, he has just 27 catches for 228 yards and one TD.
In the past eight games, Allen has just one 300-yard passing game. In three of those games, he was held under 200 yards. Before that eight-game stretch, Allen played 58 games, dating back to the start of 2020, and he had 23 games of at least 300 yards passing and was held under 200 yards just 10 times.
The Bills have been carried more by their defense of late than their offense, limiting its past three opponents to a combined 762 yards and four TDs. The defense hasn’t allowed a passing TD and has four interceptions in its past three outings.
The defense has been rejuvenated since the acquisition of cornerback Rasul Douglas at the trade deadline. He has four INTs in eight games since being acquired from Green Bay, more than making up for the loss of Tre’Davious White, who ruptured his Achilles tendon early in the season.
Douglas, in last week’s win, returned one of his two INTs for a touchdown and tipped a pass to cause a third turnover.
“I don’t know what we gave up to get him,” Buffalo safety Micah Hyde said of the deal in which Buffalo also acquired a fifthround draft pick by sending a third-round pick to Green Bay. “But we won that trade.”