’Nova will find out why UConn’s No. 1
Connecticut is the nation’s newly minted No. 1 team. Can the Huskies live up to the hype or will they become the third top-ranked team to fall in the last month?
Meanwhile, in the SEC, Alabama is getting its fourth crack at a top-10 team this season. Spoiler alert, it hasn’t gone well for the Crimson Tide thus far (0-3 straight-up, 1-2 against the spread).
Here are Saturday’s college basketball best bets:
Connecticut at Villanova, 8 p.m., (FS1)
The Huskies lead the Big East in both rebounding margin and two-point defense, and have really blossomed on the offensive end. Evan Miya ranks UConn third offensively in his adjusted efficiency metric, as does KenPom and Torvik.
UConn is versatile in that it can rely on its front-court pairing of Donovan Clingan and Alex Karaban (15.3 ppg, 5.8 rpg) or turn to its dynamic backcourt, which presents unique challenges for opponents.
Freshman guard Stephon Castle is coming into his own in conference play by repeatedly bringing the fight to his defender. His 12 foulshot performance against Georgetown demonstrates the kind of matchup problem he is on the perimeter.
Castle is balanced out by two shooters who can catch fire at any point in Tristen Newton and Cam Spencer (46.8 percent on 3s). This remains the most complete team in college basketball by far.
Villanova has fought and clawed to regain its footing as a Big East contender, but this is the game where the bottom drops out. The Wildcats’ strength is their defensive rebounding, but UConn is on another level. That should translate to more second-chance opportunities for the Huskies.
And if Villanova is forced to consistently knock down shots to hang around with the nation’s top team, I don’t see that happening. Nova shoots just 42.1 percent from the floor (258th).
That won’t cut it against Dan Hurley’s bunch, which just held a sharpshooting Creighton offense to 48 points.
Recommendation: Connecticut -2.
Alabama at Tennessee, 2 p.m. (ESPN2)
Alabama is carrying a six-game winning streak into Knoxville, but don’t be fooled by the Crimson Tide’s recent run.
Alabama’s suspect defense hasn’t been tested during the streak, facing opponents with an average adjusted offensive efficiency of 116th nationally (KenPom). The step up in class will be jarring for the Tide considering the Vols have cracked the top 30 offensively in every notable ranking system. Tennessee hit the transfer portal lottery and is now led by Dalton Knecht. The former Northern Colorado guard has exceeded even the most bullish of expectations since donning the Orange and White. He’s averaging 34 points and six rebounds on 57 percent shooting from the field across his last three games. And he’s playing his way into top-10 consideration in the NBA draft while elevating Tennessee from SEC threat to national title contender. Tennessee also has a sizable advantage on the glass in the event that Knecht’s wild heater doesn’t continue. The Vols are ranked 33rd nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, while Alabama struggles on the defensive glass (73.6 percent, 148th). Grant Nelson and Nick Pringle haven’t been consistent in Nate Oats’ front court. Pringle has had trouble staying on the court, fouling out of four of his last nine games.
I would feel comfortable laying up to 5.5 points with the Volunteers. A live bet is also on the table if Alabama’s Aaron Estrada is limited early. The Crimson Tide need a huge game from their talented senior wing to hang around on the road. If he picks up two early fouls, I think there’s a chance the roof caves in on Alabama, so I would hammer a Tennessee live bet in the event Estrada is forced to ride the pine in the first half. Recommendation: Tennessee -5.5. Michael Calabrese analyzes college basketball for Action Network.