Count on Chiefs to bring it homes again
Death, taxes and the Chiefs winning the Super Bowl. If it wasn’t already the clear reality of the NFL before, it is now.
San Francisco bettors had an unsavory conclusion to their Sunday evening after Patrick Mahomes captured his third Super Bowl in overtime. Let’s think of it this way: He has now won the Lombardi Trophy throughout 50 percent of his career.
The 49ers were favored in every game they played since Week 1. They were the No. 1 team in offensive DVOA and red-zone conversions; Brock Purdy led all quarterbacks in QBR and passer rating; Christian McCaffrey was crowned the rushing champion by nearly 300 yards over the field.
Yet no matter how seemingly mighty the 49ers built themselves to be in the regular season, Mahomes’ edge in the playoffs remained inevitable.
It’s not an advantage that can be quantified, but you know it’s there when Mahomes takes fate into his own hands by trotting for 8 yards on fourth-and-1 in overtime.
Now in the midst of an established dynasty, Kansas City is the new team those will love to hate. But regardless of how anyone feels about the Chiefs, their profitability cannot be denied.
According to Action Network’s research, if you were to have placed a $100 Super Bowl futures bet on the Chiefs each season since Mahomes became the starting quarterback in 2018, you would be up $1,900.
They’re the first franchise to win back-to-back Super Bowls since Tom Brady and Bill Belichick did it in 2004 and 2005; they had another three left in the tank over the course of the following 14 years.
Furthermore, the Chiefs are the first team in history to clinch back-to-back
Super Bowls as underdogs. Mahomes enjoys himself in this spot; he is 11-1-1 against the spread as an underdog overall and 4-0 straight up as a ’dog in the playoffs in his career.
The Chiefs will be fishing to establish another first next season as they plunge for three consecutive Super Bowls.
After Mecole Hardman caught the title-winning touchdown from Mahomes in overtime, the 49ers opened as +500 Super Bowl LIX favorites at BetMGM, with the Chiefs right behind them at +750.
Kansas City opened as 2023 favorites after defeating the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII, but sunk down to +900 by Week 18 following a 13-12 victory over the Chargers.
Want to guess who was priced above them at that point? The Bills, Ravens and of course, the 49ers: three teams they eliminated as underdogs this postseason.
The perception of oddsmakers at any given time has proved irrelevant as it pertains to the Chiefs. Public bettors know better by now than to doubt Mahomes; 69 percent of the handle was placed on Kansas City to cover the spread against San Francisco.
I could have made all of the same arguments about Mahomes 365 days ago, but now after prevailing in a season of adversity, controversy and even mediocrity at times, it’s difficult to envision anyone else being as safe a futures pick as the Chiefs.
I’m sure Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen will come back bloodthirsty as ever and the 49ers will be an awakened sleeping giant. The stronger the threat, the higher Mahomes seems to rise. It’s time to accept the proven greatness for what it is.
Patrick Mahomes is 28 years old. We haven’t seen the last of anything.