With Soto, devil in the details
PEORIA, Ariz. — Look at Juan Soto’s statistics. How much more do you need? Those numbers, through an age-24 season, stand up pretty well historically against just about anyone. His 160 homers are ninth-most through that age, tied with Albert Pujols. Since the end of World War II, Soto has the best on-base percentage at .421 among those with at least 2,000 plate appearances followed by Pujols (.413), Mickey Mantle (.412) and Mike Trout (.405).
So I was looking for more than a numerical explanation of Soto when I stopped into Padres camp to essentially ask about how he gets to those numbers.
“The one thing that really impressed me on the field was seeing a guy who never gave one at-bat away,” said Mike Shildt, who served as a Padres adviser the past two years before becoming the manager. “You talk about getting to numbers, and I have been blessed to be around high-level players like Albert and Goldie [Paul Goldschmidt]
and those guys, regardless of the situation, they treat their at-bats like gold. Juan is like that.”
Soto was traded from the Nationals to the Padres on Aug. 2, 2022. Then this past Dec. 7, as San Diego was looking to lower payroll and deepen the roster, it acquired five players (four pitchers) from the Yankees, who also received Trent Grisham, as they sought to boost their disappointing offense with more lefthanded punch/balance.
“For [Soto], it starts with plate discipline,” Padres starter Joe Musgrove said. “The guys that control the zone the best are the hardest to pitch to. As pitchers, we ultimately want to throw as few strikes as we have to throw to get a guy out — a guy who chases is an easier out. You don’t have to go into the zone to do it. [Soto] is very good at working the count, but even when he is behind in the count, he is not afraid to take and get to two strikes and work his way back into a count. I can’t tell you how many 0-2 counts he turned around last year, and then you come over the plate and he is a big threat. It feels like he has a plan every day in which he’s going to get at least one walk and a couple hits off of you.”
Soto drew an MLB-high 11 walks after falling behind 0-2 last year, and only Minnesota’s Edoaurd Julien had a higher percentage of walks from a 0-2 count, 10.8 compared to Soto’s 9.2.
“Every at-bat with Juan is an absolute war. It’s a battle whether it’s the first inning or ninth inning and your team is winning by 10 runs; he’s still treating every pitch like Game 7 of the World Series,” Padres GM A.J. Preller said. “That’s 162 games and 600 at-bats. It’s a special trait. And I think the Yankees will feed off of that, to see someone who treats every pitch like that.”
When Preller mentions 162 games, he means 162 games. Soto has been on the IL just once — for two weeks in 2021 for a shoulder sprain. Since his debut in 2018, Soto has played in 778 games, seventhmost, including being one of four players to play 162 games last year.
“He posted every single game,” Shildt said. “There were days he didn’t feel great and he wouldn’t allow Bob [Melvin, now former Padres manager,] to take him out of the lineup. Think about it: You post every day, you go through the grind of the season and never give in on an at-bat. That’s extremely impressive.” What about the down side? Fangraphs had Soto as the seventh-worst defensive outfielder last year and the 18th-worst base runner.
Preller said,
“His calling card is the offensive side of the game, and he understands that’s what you’re getting. We asked him to play right field in 2022 and left field in ’23, and he works at his craft. He cares. He’s detail-oriented. He’s not a total liability in the field. He’s more than capable. He’s been a good, solid outfielder and he’s gonna be conscientious, and he’s gonna keep getting better because he cares about it.”
There also is the Joey Votto-ish question whether Soto is too passive at the plate, too absorbed in the long counts and walks even in RBI situations. He did hit .299 with a 1.016 OPS with runners in scoring position. But he also struck out looking 51 times (eighth-most in MLB, with Grisham next at 50). Shildt called it “part of Juan’s identity” and cautioned those who might want the superstar to pivot from that.
The Padres were extreme underachievers last year, missing the playoffs with the same 82-80 record as the Yankees. A September article in The Athletic reported on the toxic feel around the Padres that was widely whispered about in the game. Soto was not named in the story, but there was a part of the whispering that — at minimum — Soto did not come out of his insular bubble to try to integrate and make things better.
To which, Preller said, “To me, Juan has done a ton of winning in his career, including a World Series [in 2019]. He helped us get to the LCS [in 2022]. I think he wants to fit in well anywhere he goes because he cares. He cares about his craft and being good. He’s serious. He will go to where there is an environment in which there’s a lot of players who are serious about winning, and he’s gonna do well.”