Mets’ 2024 success may be held in just two arms
PORT ST. LUCIE — The two swingmen on the Mets are starters. If Sean Manaea and Luis Severino pivot toward health and even just good results, the Mets have a clearer path to 85–plus wins and wild-card contention. Swing poorly and the Mets’ chances of being a trade-deadline seller for a second straight year grows.
Their rotation importance only magnified with the likelihood that presumptive ace Kodai Senga (shoulder) will miss the first sixish weeks of the season. If Severino/Manaea (LuiSean?) repeat what they did in the first six weeks last year, the Mets may be doomed by mid-May. Severino, recovering from a lat strain, didn’t start until May 21 in his final Yankee season. Manaea fell out of a meh Giant rotation after his May 10 outing left him with a 7.96 ERA.
The Mets believe they are getting better versions of this veteran duo because of Manaea’s expanded repertoire and increased velocity and Severino’s health. But they are wild cards within a wildcard pursuit.
The Mets — barring injury — can feel like they have a solid midrotation starter in Jose Quintana and back-end starter in Adrian Houser based on extended track record. Their sturdiness and certainty are valuable. But the Mets need more quality and quantity, especially with Senga out. Especially with the best of their pitching prospect base — notably Chrstian Scott — with still plenty of minor league finishing school to complete. And now another rotation long shot who the Mets quietly liked, Max Kranick, will begin the season on the IL with a hamstring injury.
And the Mets lack much optionality in their bullpen to move relievers up and down for fresh arms nor does the pen project to many multiple-inning pieces. So the rotation must protect that pen, at least somewhat.
Thus, the variance of Manaea and Severino has the most impact on the Mets’ 2024 season — you can imagine either/ both out of the rotation by June or you can imagine 150 pretty good innings.
“Yeah, I agree with that,” pitching coach Jeremy Hefner said. “And they’ve both done it at different points in their career, right? Severino has been an All-Star and an ace. And Sean has similarly had long stretches of dominance as a starter. So, it is our job to help them realize that potential again.”
Severino on Friday and Manaea on Saturday are due to make their first spring starts, which lines them up to follow Quintana for the opening series against the Brewers.
David Stearns’ philosophy was — besides the 25-year-old Yoshinobu Yamamoto who would have helped now and well into the future — the Mets were not interested this offseason in doing longterm deals that could clutter the payroll and roster. Severino signed a one-year, $13 million pact. Manaea received the only multiyear deal (two years at $26 million). But the Mets need it to be a one-year pact because Manaea can opt out after this season and will do so if he has even a good season — consider he opted out of the second year of a two-year, $25 million contract with the Giants despite a 4.44 ERA.
That was because he finished strongly. Manaea increased his velocity from 2022 (91.2 mph) to 2023 (93.6) — the largest percentage jump of anyone who pitched 100 innings in each season after an offseason at Driveline, a renowned performance center. His season changed for the better when he introduced a sweeper on May 30 and had a 3.60 ERA thereafter; and then a 2.25 ERA in closing the season with four starts. He went to two pitching labs in the offseason for further refinement and Hefner said the next step is to do better vs. righties (.774 OPS compared to .570 against lefties) with a changeup that the pitching coach already described as “real” and a cutter he said still needs work.
“I’m building on stuff from last year,” Manaea said. “And the key is never to get complacent, to always want to be better.”
As for Severino, he lost his best fastball last year, and way too much on his slider and also his confidence as his ability to blow away hitters dissipated. After brilliant 2017-18 campaigns and signing an extension that would be $52.25 million over five years, Severino persistently broke down and made just 40 regular-season starts. Severino, who turned 30 last week, said he was subconsciously not letting loose on his slider last year for fear of re-injury. As for the theory that he was tipping, Severino revealed that one team he was negotiating with in the offseason said that to muster more velocity on his fastball, Severino would tilt his back more dramatically backward and would be straighter up and down on his other offerings.
“No. 1, I think he’s healthy,” Hefner said in explaining why he is encouraged. “We have the best performance staff in all of baseball. You mix really smart medical people and a motivated player — a guy that wants to work hard to get back to All-Star status — that’s an unbelievable marriage. I’m lucky I get to work with a pitcher that can do incredible things with the baseball. I feel like we are mitigating all of the risks we can. Now we will try to build on that for a great season.” Can Manaea/Severino combine for at least 300 innings and say a 110 ERA-plus or better? The Mets season likely swings on which
way they go.