Tricky Trees are gonna stand tall in Luton
It’ll be a relatively quiet weekend in the Premier League this weekend with just four matches on the docket because of the FA Cup quarterfinals, but there’s still plenty of intrigue and betting value to be found across the pond.
We’ll start with a relegation sixpointer at Kenilworth Road.
Nottingham Forest at Luton Town, Saturday
It’s been a whirlwind season for Luton Town and this is the biggest match of the campaign by a long shot.
The Hatters, who are playing in the top flight of English football for the first time since 1995-96 and were toiling away in the Fifth Division only a decade ago, are just three points behind Nottingham Forest in the table and could pull even with them with a win at home on Saturday.
Luton has had to fight tooth and nail to even give itself a chance to stay up in the Premier League and the Hatters deserve heaps of credit for finding ways to collect enough points to stay relevant while the other newly promoted sides, Sheffield United and Burnley, are almost certain to go right back down to the Championship at season’s end.
The way Luton has approached this season is to throw caution to the wind and embrace the chaos that a back-andforth soccer match can bring. It often bites them in the backside, as it did in a 4-3 loss to Bournemouth on Wednesday, but it has allowed the Hatters to pull off big results against Everton, Brighton and Newcastle.
That said, Luton need a willing partner to play their brand of soccer and Nottingham Forest is unlikely to engage in this spot.
Not only would Forest be fine with a draw in this spot, but they prefer to play a much more pragmatic style of soccer focused on limiting quality scoring chances for their opponent. Forest ranks fourth in the Premier League in suppressing big scoring chances and eighth in expected goals against (not including penalties). The Tricky Trees will show up to Kenilworth Road looking to shut down Luton’s attack and they have a strong chance of doing that.
Forest’s attack leaves a lot to be desired, but they have clinical finishers like Taiwo Awoniyi and Chris Wood who don’t need a ton of scoring chances to make you pay. And Luton’s defense, which is among the leakiest in the Premier League, should offer very little resistance.
Forest looks like a good value play on the three-way moneyline.
Recommendation: Nottingham Forest +145
Tottenham at Fulham, Saturday
This could be a fantastic watch for neutrals.
Both Fulham and Tottenham play a high-energy brand of soccer and prefer their opponents do the same. Thus, you can expect that the ball will be on the carpet for the majority of this contest with both sides looking to pass and press their way to victory. That should set up a see-saw battle between two frenetic teams. It’s no wonder that the bookmakers have set this total at 3.5 goals.
Neither one of these sides are going to take their foot off the pedal in this one and that should lead to a back-and-forth match that could see plenty of scoring chances at both ends of the pitch. Fulham’s done well to overachieve this season, but Spurs are simply much more dangerous in front of goal and have a chance to run rampant in this contest.
It seems pretty unlikely that this will end up as a tight match, so I’ll take a shot on Spurs to win by multiple goals rather than on the moneyline.