PRICE TO PLAYOFF

Cohen's wallet could help Mets increase wild-card chances

PORT ST. LUCIE — Some team was going to sign Cody Bellinger. And Matt Chapman. And Blake Snell. The expectation all winter was that before the regular season, Dylan Cease would be traded.

However, for the Mets, did they all have to wind up with NL teams likely to also be in the wild-card hunt?

Last year, the final two NL wild-card spots came down to Arizona and Miami with 84 wins getting in — the Cubs (83), and Padres and Reds (82) falling short.

The expectation is, like in 2023, that the NL is going to have two superior teams in the Braves and Dodgers. I think the Phillies are just beneath them and the Diamondbacks after that. But the projection systems have a snarl below the dynamic duo. Thus, the ecosystem is sensitive enough to be altered by the Giants adding Chapman and Snell at this late date, and the Cubs retaining Bellinger and the Padres acquiring Cease.

Baseball Prospectus’ Pecota system, as of Tuesday, projected the Diamondbacks as the No. 1 wild card at 85.0 wins — then the Phillies at 84.3, Giants 83.4, Mets 82.6, Cubs 81.6 (it has the Cardinals winning the NL Central) and Padres at 81.0. Fangraphs had it as the Phillies at 85.0, Diamondbacks 83.6, Giants 83.2, Padres 82.6, Cubs 82.2, Marlins 80.7 and Mets at 80.4.

Now, pull out a large grain of salt. At this time last season, the Mets, Cardinals and Padres were strong favorites to make the playoffs and instead were among the most disappointing teams.

But the idea here is to see this as a snapshot, an indicator of where the league might be going. My guess is the Mets’ internal projection system sees the league similarly because Steve Cohen said over the weekend, “There are a couple of great teams in the National League, but other than that, I think we’re as competitive as any other.”

Cohen also said the goal is to make the playoffs, and when asked if he would expand his payroll to do so, he explained, “My job is to support David [Stearns, president of baseball operations],” and that he would look to be “opportunistic.” He was being questioned about what he would do at the trade deadline. But opportunity continues to exist now.

Bellinger, Chapman, Snell and Cease are all Scott Boras clients, and so are still-lingering free agents J.D. Martinez and Jordan Montgomery. I sensed when I broached the Montgomery subject early in spring training that the Mets had a price it would jump at if it fell far enough, but they believed another club would jump in before that. However, that was before the prices — especially in the number of years — for Chapman and Snell followed Bellinger and dropped precipitously.

Nevertheless, the flip side also was an industry sentiment that Montgomery preferred not to land in New York, though neither he nor Boras has suggested that publicly. Also — and this might be March delusion — the Mets feel better about their pitching depth today than at the start of camp, even with Kodai Senga lost for at least a month.

It is why Martinez is probably more a possibility. The Mets recently pursued another J.D. in Davis to have depth and a hedge at third base in case Brett Baty and Mark Vientos failed there. But surer playing time swayed him to the A’s. The Mets would not commit to substantially lower the playing time for Baty/Vientos when their priority is to learn about young players to set them up better for the future.

Signing Martinez would mean cutting significantly into Vientos’ at-bats, perhaps even putting him back at Triple-A. The only reason to sign Martinez would be to make him the DH and primary protection for Pete Alonso. The Mets have worried internally that in his age-35 season, Martinez’s chase, swing-and-miss rate and strikeout percentage rose, and his walk rate fell. Are these signs that he is about to fall off a cliff ? Conversely, he was swinging and missing a lot in his prime, and like in his prime he continued to hit the ball hard and productively for the 2023 Dodgers (33 homers and 103 RBIs in 113 games).

The Mets wonder even now if trying to break in Baty and Vientos for regular at-bats will greatly imperil their playoff quest, and might it be better to just try one. But there also is the financial element. If Martinez costs, say, the same $10 million as last season, it would cost the Mets an additional $11 million in tax, making him a $21 million cost for just 2024.

To this point, Cohen has been willing to use his largesse when his front office has asked. But, until now, baseball operations has stuck to its price points and principles for what their 2024 priorities are. In recent weeks, though, a few teams likely to join the Mets in that wild-card snarl have perhaps incrementally nudged themselves toward a better postseason chance.

Will that motivate the Mets to try to counter in this moment or continue to see how the season goes before acting?

FOR WHAT IT’S WORTH: If the Mets feel trying to break in Brett Baty — who homered against the Cardinals on Tuesday — and Mark Vientos (left) will hurt their chances at a playoff berth, especially after a recent spending spree by other wild-card hopefuls such as the Giants, owner Steve Cohen could boost postseason odds by signing slugger J.D. Martinez, offering primary protection for Pete Alonso, writes The Post’s Joel Sherman.