Minor upset and an Under in South
After a wild first day of the NCAA Tournament, a couple of intriguing South Region matchups dot my betting card on Friday.
(8) Nebraska vs. (9) Texas A&M
Nebraska has a half-decent matchup in the opening round. The Cornhuskers should be able to create off-ball perimeter shots with Keisei Tominaga against Texas A&M’s under-screening defense, which allows a ton of 3s.
But the Cornhuskers are at a significant, possibly impossible-to-overcome disadvantage because the Aggies should dominate the boards.
Texas A&M is college basketball’s best offensive rebounding team, leading the nation in offensive rebounding rate (42 percent) and second-chance points (17).
And Nebraska has difficulty on the boards, ranking 223rd in defensive rebounding rate (70 percent) and 300th in percentage of points allowed on secondchance opportunities (16 percent).
Texas A&M might struggle to create first-shot offense or defend Nebraska’s first-shot offense, but the Aggies will grab most of the 50/50 balls and score relentlessly by playing volleyball on the offensive boards.
At minimum, that gives Texas A&M a very consistent avenue to offense.
The Aggies also have a pretty significant athletic advantage. They should be able to create plus isolation mismatches across the roster, especially with star point guard Wade Taylor IV and bully-ball wing Tyrece Radford.
The schematic matchup isn’t excellent, but the Aggies should dominate the extras, especially with their steady ballhandling and fouldrawing ability.
Recommendation: Texas A&M +1.5.
(13) Vermont vs. (4) Duke
Vermont drew a difficult first-round assignment. The Catamounts would have preferred to face an uptempo team that would get uncomfortable playing at John Becker’s languid, half-court pace.
Instead, the Catamounts pulled a
Duke team that has slowed the tempo mightily under Jon Scheyer. The Blue Devils are most comfortable playing in the half-court; they’re 1-3 in games with more than 70 possessions this year, but 23-5 in all others.
Vermont’s offensive matchup isn’t favorable. The Catamounts are running their five-out perimeter-based motion offense into an excellent defensive backcourt that ranks in the top 100 nationally in 3-point and Open 3-point Rate allowed.
Vermont shoots a lot of 3s, and Duke should deny most good looks.
Vermont shifts into ball-screen mode when shots aren’t falling, trying to hit big men off the hard roll or generate post-up opportunities. Unfortunately, the Catamounts don’t have a natural post-up presence like in years past. This has made it impossible to find secondary, easy offense when shots aren’t falling, leading to lengthy stretches of stale offense.
But while Vermont’s offense has regressed, the Catamounts have created Becker’s best-ever defensive team behind transfer big man Ileri Ayo-Faleye and point guard Shamir Bogues. Ayo-Faleye is the best interior defender in the mid-majors, while Bogues is among the most impactful on-ball pressure defenders in Vermont’s history. Their athleticism and physicality pop off the page.
Duke’s main avenue to offense is leveraging Kyle Filipowski in the screen-androll game. When he’s not scoring, he uses vision and pinpoint passing to hit perimeter jumpers; Duke shot 39 percent from 3 for a reason.
But I’m willing to bet Ayo-Faleye can contain Filipowski one-on-one, allowing Vermont to stick tight to Duke’s shooters; Vermont closes out on more than 70 percent of catch-and-shoot opportunities, ranking third nationally. Meanwhile, Bogues can handle Jeremy Roach, Duke’s lead scoring guard.
This game should be played at a 60-possession pace, and it should feature long stretches of stale, inefficient offense. Vermont and Duke are a combined 42-22 (66 percent) to the Under this season. Expect more of the same on Friday. Recommendation: Under 132.5.
Tanner McGrath handicaps the NCAA Tournament for Action Network.