Heels & Illini to go from Sweet to Elite
The NCAA Tournament’s Sweet 16 tips off on Thursday with four matchups in the East and West Regions. Here are the two sides I’m betting on.
West Region: (1) North Carolina vs. (4) Alabama
UNC seems a tad undervalued. The Tar Heels are the worst NCAA Tournament one seed, but I don’t think they’re as far behind the others as the public thinks.
RJ Davis is a madman with middle-ofthe-floor dribble and shot creation that no one in college basketball duplicates. Armando Bacot is still among the nation’s best post-up players and rebounders. Elliot Cadeau has improved all year. Cormac Ryan and Harrison Ingram are vital cogs on the wing.
The Heels play great interior defense, ranking top-25 nationally in two-point shooting allowed and paint points per game allowed while rebounding everything.
North Carolina might struggle with Alabama’s elite off-ball secondary and isolation actions, but you can only hope to contain the Tide, who averaged 90.8 points per game in the regular season.
The Tar Heels have a shot at containment, given that they have the nation’s best transition denial defense and the fourth-best rim-and-3 defense by points per possession (PPP) allowed. Both will be monstrous against Nate Oats’ offense, which emphasizes up-tempo, rimand-3 basketball.
Conversely, North Carolina should be able to score on a high percentage of its possessions.
The Tide run a dropcoverage defense with limited rim protection and rebounding. The first issue is vulnerable to Davis’ on-ball dribbleand middle-of-the-floor creation, and the latter two are vulnerable to Bacot’s post creation and offensive rebounding.
Not to mention Alabama fouls like crazy, while North Carolina draws fouls at a top-80 rate nationally.
The Tar Heels should score at will, and I trust their sturdy defense to generate enough tough stops to cover the two-possession spread and earn another trip to the Elite Eight.
Recommendation: North Carolina -4.5.
East Region: (3) Illinois vs. (2) Iowa State
Iowa State runs a ball-screen blitz defense with no middle elements near the rim and paint. The scheme sends two defenders to the ball handler and rotates aggressively and early over the paint and rim.
There are a few ways Illinois’
No. 1-ranked offense can exploit Iowa State’s No. 1 defense (both according to KenPom’s efficiency metrics) and rip through those vulnerabilities.
First, among the best ways to beat the blitz is by avoiding ball-screen creation altogether, leaning into isolation creation.
Brad Underwood has leaned heavily into five-out isolation creation, relying mainly on hero ball behind Terrance Shannon Jr., Marcus Domask and Coleman Hawkins. The Illini will roll the ball out and beat you one-on-one. Second, the inherently aggressive nature of the blitz and no-middle means the Cyclones foul often and leave the boards open to second-chance opportunities. The Illini are among the nation’s best at crashing the glass, ranking among the top 15 nationally in offensive rebounding rate and the top five in secondchance points per game.
And it’s nearly impossible not to foul Shannon and Domask on their aggressive lane drives, so Illinois ranks in the top 70 nationally in free throw rate. Illinois’ defense is a huge problem, and I’m unsure if the Illini’s porous ballscreen coverage defense can contain Tamin Lipsey or the Cyclones’ rim-running cutters.
However, this matchup ultimately depends on whether you trust Illinois’ offense or Iowa State’s defense more. I quite like Illinois’ matchup from a schematic perspective, and I don’t trust Iowa State’s offense, which ranks last among the 16 remaining teams in efficiency over the past 10 games. Recommendation: Illinois +1.5. Tanner McGrath analyzes basketball for Action Network.