Lay small spreads on Cougars & Vols
The second half of the Sweet 16 tips off Friday, with four intriguing matchups. I’ve got two of them on my betting card.
South Region: (4) Duke vs. (1) Houston
You don’t beat Houston with on-ball screens and post feeds. You just don’t.
The Cougars’ aggressive blitz defense sends two to the ball on every screen while rotating aggressively toward the paint in rim denial. The nation’s best, most physical and talented defense ranks in the top five nationally in ballscreen points per possession (PPP) at 59 percent and post-up PPP allowed at 62 percent.
Meanwhile, Duke’s offense is built around Kyle Filipowski in the high-post screen-and-roll game. He’s an excellent pick-and-pop and hard-roll player, but he’s most effective in the short-roll game, consistently hitting Duke’s perimeter shooters when the defense rotates toward him. This was a big reason why Duke shot 40 percent from beyond the arc in ACC play this season.
Still, you don’t beat Houston with onball screens and post feeds. If Duke could roll the ball into the high post, the Blue Devils might create enough perimeter opportunities to win — as they did in a 50 percent 3-point shooting performance against James Madison.
But they’ll have a difficult time getting the ball into the high post, especially because Duke is a finesse team that lacks physicality. The Blue Devils’ inability to handle physical play is why they lost twice to North Carolina this season and also in last year’s NCAA Tournament to Tennessee.
We almost saw a similar fate in their first-round game against Vermont. The Catamounts have a sketchy ball-screen coverage defense. Still, they boast two physical defenders in Ileri Ayo-Faleye and Shamir Bogues, and those two held Duke to only 64 points on .92 PPP, with Filipowski scoring only three points on a single shot attempt. Imagine what Houston will do. I’m unsure where the Cougars create offense, but I trust their defense to overwhelm and control Duke for 40 minutes in a convincing Sweet 16 win.
Recommendation: Houston -3.5 (BetMGM).
Midwest Region: (3) Creighton vs. (2) Tennessee
Creighton runs a drop-coverage defense that overplays ball-handlers on the perimeter and shooters on the wing, funneling everything toward the rim. Because they have a dominant rim protector in Ryan Kalkbrenner, the Bluejays own one of the nation’s best drop-coverage defenses. But you beat the drop with on-ball middle-of-the-floor creation, and Dalton Knecht is among the best at midrange creation. He ranks in the 90th percentile of D-I players in mid-range efficiency, and he murdered drop-coverage defenses this season, dropping 57 points in two games against South Carolina, 25 against Alabama and 39 against Florida. Knecht is crucial to Tennessee’s offense beating Creighton’s defense. But I feel confident that the Volunteers’ defense will hold up fine against the Bluejays’ offense. Creighton runs a motion-based, inside-out offense that relies heavily on Kalkbrenner’s post buckets and secondary 3-pointers from Baylor Scheierman, Trey Alexander and Steven Ashworth. But Rick Barnes’ defense is overwhelming at the rim, excellent in the gaps and rock-solid at closing out on shooters. In other words, the Vols can stop everything the Jays want to do. For example, Creighton ranks second nationally in rim-and-3 PPP, but Tennessee ranks fourth in rim-and-3 PPP allowed. Like the Blue Devils, the Bluejays are physically soft. They let Nfaly Dante and Jermaine Cousinard keep Oregon in the game without help during the second round. That won’t play against Tennessee, which is almost as physical as Houston. Knecht will score, the defense will show up, and the Volunteers will convincingly advance to the Elite Eight. Recommendation: Tennessee -2.5 (FanDuel). Tanner McGrath analyzes the NCAA Tournament for Action Network.
The NFL’s drastic new kickoff rules have the Chiefs thinking outside the box — and the sport.
The back-to-back Super Bowl champs have agreed to a contract with rugby star Louis Rees-Zammit on Friday and he is being viewed as a wide receiver/running back, according to ESPN.
The report says his “biggest impact” may come via special teams and as a return specialist.
The 23-year-old reportedly wowed Kansas City during a workout earlier in the week, and he also visited with the Jets, Browns and Broncos, per Bleacher Report.
Rees-Zammit, a Wales native, is labeled by ESPN as “by far the biggest rugby star” attempting to make the NFL via the International Player Pathway.
After starring in England with Gloucester, he announced in February his plans to play in the NFL.
“I would like to take this opportunity to announce a significant career decision that I have taken after careful consideration,” Reez-Zammit posted on Instagram. “In a move that I am extremely excited about, I can confirm that I will be joining the NFL’s International Pathway program (IPP) in pursuit of earning a spot on an NFL roster in the United States for 2024.”
He added: “Although this decision may come as a surprise, I would like to reiterate that this does not necessarily mean I am retiring from rugby, but rather at this age and stage of my life, I am excited to explore a unique challenge that has the potential to diversify my skill set.”
The International Player Pathway Program, founded in 2017, states it “helps foreign-born football players reach the NFL.” It claims 18 current NFL players, including Eagles tackle Jordan Mailata.
The NFL announced last September it would expand practice squads for the 2024 season to include a 17th roster spot for one international player.
Rees-Zammit reportedly registered a 4.43 in the 40-yard dash at the IPP Pro Day, along with a 9-feet, 7-inch broad jump and 29-inch vertical jump, according to ESPN.
He told the outlet his favorite NFL player was former Eagles star DeSean Jackson.
The new kickoff rules are designed to increase returns, and there are rugby elements in kickoff returns, which would allow ReesZammit to potentially contribute.
Rees-Zammit joins a Chiefs team that lacked consistent production from its skill positions, beyond Travis Kelce, late-season revelation Rashee Rice and running back Isiah Pacheco. Kansas City added receiver Marquise “Hollywood” Brown in free agency to help solidify the position.