Scotland’s Parliament weighs U.K. breakup

LONDON — The Scottish Parliament headed toward a vote on whether to back calls for a second independence referendum, setting the stage for a clash between the British prime minister and the first minister of Scotland.

If the semiautonomous Scottish Parliament does vote in favor of a referendum, it will mean that advocates for Scottish independence will be able to say they have a parliamentary mandate for a referendum. But they will still need to get the green light from Westminster in order to hold a binding referendum.

During a debate on the issue Tuesday, Nicola Sturgeon, the first minister of Scotland, said it would be “unfair and utterly unsustainable” for Westminster to block her request.

Sturgeon, the leader of the pro-independence Scottish National Party, announced earlier this month that she would seek a new independence referendum.

She said Tuesday that “staying in the U.K. hasn’t safeguarded Scotland’s place in Europe, it has jeopardized it.”

The opposition Conservative and Labor parties oppose a new independence poll, but the Greens say they will support Sturgeon’s Scottish National Party.

“The people of Scotland do not want another divisive referendum,” said Scottish Labor leader Kezia Dugdale.

Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson accused Sturgeon of trying to force through a referendum, calling it “a tin-pot approach to the biggest decision we could ever be asked to make.”

In 2014, Scotland with 55 percent of the vote favored staying in the United Kingdom. At the time, Scottish leaders said it was a “once in a generation” vote. But Sturgeon has argued that last year’s European Union referendum — which saw the majority of Scottish voters opting to remain in the EU and the majority of English voters opting to leave — represents a “material change in circumstances” and that Scotland risks being taken out of the EU against its wishes.

The timing of the proposal has come under close scrutiny. Sturgeon has suggested the referendum be held sometime between fall 2018 and spring 2019, creating a dizzying scenario that could see Britain engaged in EU-exit negotiations and an independence referendum at the same time.

British leaders haven’t refused the request for a referendum, but they have rejected the timetable.

“Now is not the time,” said Britain’s prime minister, Theresa May, who next week will trigger Article 50 and start the process of leaving the EU. Divorce talks between the U.K. and the EU are expected to last two years.

The British government has to approve a legally binding referendum, and May said she will not agree to Sturgeon’s timeline — though she has not ruled out a later independence vote.

Sturgeon responded by saying she’s prepared to negotiate on the timing of a referendum “within reason.”

Experts say that support for independence isn’t radically different from where it was in 2014.

“The truth of the matter is, we’re split down the middle on whether we want a referendum, and on the outcome itself,” said Mark Diffley, research director at Ipsos MORI, a polling company.

When the last referendum campaign kicked off in 2012, support for independence hovered around 30 percent. At the time of the vote two years later, it had climbed to 45 percent.

“One of the things the SNP and the yes side will be banking on in any campaign is that that will happen again,” said Diffley, who added that the pro-independence party faces the additional challenge that voters are more set in their ways.

“On the one hand, the hurdle the SNP has to get over is much smaller this time around, but on the other, opinions are slightly more entrenched,” Diffley said. “So the hurdle is smaller, but more difficult to get over.”