Trump-Xi meeting difficult to forecast

BEIJING — Chinese President Xi Jinping meets President Donald Trump face to face for the first time this week, but whether the meeting will yield any outcomes of substance is unclear.

Some view the informal venue of the summit Thursday and Friday

— Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida — as a sign that neither side anticipates important outcomes. Trump, however, tweeted last week that he expects “a very difficult” meeting.

Trump elaborated a bit Tuesday at a White House business forum, calling North Korea a “humanity problem.” But he sought to strike a cordial tone ahead of the meeting, saying he has “a lot of respect” for Xi.

China, for its part, has remained largely sanguine about the event, with Vice Foreign Minister Zheng Zeguang telling reporters that “both sides look forward to a successful meeting so that a correct direction can be set for the growth of bilateral relations.”

Like many nations, China is still grappling with Trump’s mercurial nature after the relative transparency and predictability of the bilateral relationship under Trump’s predecessor, Barack Obama. Both during his campaign and after his victory, Trump complained repeatedly over China’s allegedly unfair trade practices, its perceived lack of assistance in reining in North Korea’s nuclear ambitions and its drive to cement control over the South China Sea.

Some analysts believe Xi might be willing to hand Trump a symbolic victory on trade to put a positive spin on the meeting.

“Xi probably can’t accommodate Trump on sovereignty and security issues, but he has a lot of leeway on economics,” said Robert Sutter, a China expert at George Washington University in Washington, D.C.

Yet even if Xi is able to offer Trump deliverables, he will still have to deal with “a restless U.S. president valuing unpredictability and seeking advantage for his agenda going forward,” Sutter said.

Trump was seen as moving trade even more to the forefront when he signed a pair of executive orders Friday focused on reducing the trade deficit. Coupled together, the orders appeared to be a symbolic shot at China, which accounted for the vast bulk — $347 billion — of last year’s $502 billion trade deficit.

While aides insisted the timing was coincidental, the administration touted the moves as evidence of it taking an aggressive but analytical approach to closing a trade gap that is largely due to the influx of goods from China.

Still, Trump told the Financial Times newspaper that during his meeting with Xi, he doesn’t “want to talk about tariffs yet, perhaps the next time we meet.”

Meanwhile, China continues to oppose the tough measures demanded of it to address former close ally North Korea, fearing a collapse of the Pyongyang regime would lead to a crush of refugees and possibly U.S. and South Korean troops on its border.

Trump told the Financial Times the U.S. is prepared to act alone if China does not take a tougher stand against North Korea’s nuclear program.

“China has great influence over North Korea,” Trump said. “And China will either decide to help us with North Korea, or they won’t. And if they do that will be very good for China, and if they don’t it won’t be good for anyone.”

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