A threat blooms

Don’t underestimate North Korea Guest writer

Ijust spent two weeks in Japan. After making presentations in Tokyo, I flew an hour and a half southwest to the second-largest and southernmost of Japan’s four main islands, Kyushu. I stood 130 miles by hydrofoil over the Sea of Japan from South Korea.

Japan continues as the best retail customer service and the safest country in the world. But outside bustling Tokyo, Japan’s vulnerability is apparent. It is totally dependent on the U.S. for its security, as written into its Constitution in 1947 by Gen. Douglas MacArthur. Fifty thousand American military members are stationed in Japan. Many are on bases in Kyushu by the Sea of Japan, where North Korea has lobbed four missiles and counting in 2017.

A November heads-up from Barack Obama to Donald Trump became vivid. After the election, Obama invited the president-elect to a White House tour. Off camera, Trump asked what might be the No. 1 unexpected crisis he could face. With national attention on Russian meddling and ISIS, Obama shocked him by replying “North Korea.”

This hermit nation of 25 million people has long seemed to be a harmless joke. North Korea is a Stalin-era cult-of-personality dictatorship. Its budget is lopsided, with 9 million of its 25 million people either active or reserve military. Periodic food shortages are common. An estimated 2 million starved to death in a famine 1994-1998.

To make itself relevant, for 25 years North Korea periodically has made outlandish threats to bomb U.S. allies Japan and South Korea. For 25 years, U.S. presidents from Bill Clinton to Obama have followed a repetitive pattern of threatening back, offering food supplies for good behavior, then new threats, more food shipments, etc.

Meanwhile, North Korea kept advancing its missile technology. In a Jan. 1, 2017, speech, the North Korean “Dear Leader” proclaimed that an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of reaching the United States was in its final stage of development. Military analysts say a miniaturized nuclear warhead capable of fitting on the ICBM’s tip also is close to being ready.

Hello, California and U.S. mainland. Time for American presidents to stop kicking the North Korean can down the road?

So now the U.S. mainland must face up to the security anxiety Japan and South Korea have faced—daily—for 25 years.

I was asked after the Tokyo presentations, “Can we count on Mr. Trump?” He seems to cherish unpredictability, contradicts himself regularly, and makes up policy decisions on the fly. “Hai, hai, hai” (yes). And by the way, an overnight tweet could change everything.

I added that the silver lining in the dark cloud for the U.S. and for Japan is electronic warfare. Three years ago, Obama ordered clandestine jamming of North Korea’s missile system. Trump has “no comment” continued it. Eightyeight percent of missile launches since have fizzled. The most recent on April 16 was a spectacular embarrassment, exploding after a submarine launch on North Korea’s major national holiday.

Are we headed to World War III? In terms of national security, Trump’s on-the-job training is twofold. On one hand, he tweet-threatens North Korea and he showed a trigger finger by dropping the Mother of All Bombs on Afghanistan.

On the other hand, he incurred Vladimir Putin’s wrath with the Syrian bombs, shocking political pundits; and his recent verbal comments reflect a tempering influence by experienced internationalists James Mattis at Defense and Rex Tillerson at State.

The cherry blossoms are blooming brightly in Japan. Their explosive beauty is symbolically both vibrant (hopeful) and short-lived (mortality)— just like the blossoms in Washington D.C., a gift in 1912 from Tokyo’s mayor. In both cities, they are anticipated back next year.

But if Trump counts on his new buddy President Xi of China to neutralize North Korea, he is going to be disillusioned. Then the trigger finger will get itchy.

And those cherry blossoms in Pyongyang won’t bloom under missile explosions.