Storm system’s bull’s-eye shifts from Russellville to Oklahoma

A stalled storm system over Northwest Arkansas and Oklahoma will dump up to 8 inches of rain on parts of the state this weekend, causing rivers and streams — already swollen from recent downpours — to overflow their banks, National Weather Service meteorologists forecast.

Hydrologists said the worst of the flooding will occur in the White River basin, the Arkansas River in the western half of the state, the Buffalo River and the Black River.

Rescue workers searched unsuccessfully for a third day Friday for a man who disappeared Wednesday on the Buffalo National River after his canoe overturned. Officials suspended their search Friday afternoon until floodwater recedes and the river is safer to navigate.

Forecasters originally said the heaviest rain would fall today over an area between Mena and Russellville, but newer weather models indicate more rain will likely fall in eastern Oklahoma.

“Earlier, we thought the bull’s-eye was over Russellville,” said meteorologist Sean Clarke with the National Weather Service in North Little Rock. “But when heavy rain falls in Oklahoma, it causes significant issues on the Arkansas River.”

Clarke said runoff from Oklahoma storms cascades into the Arkansas River and eventually flows downstream into Arkansas. Rains in southern Missouri eventually run off into Arkansas’ reservoir lakes in the northern edge of the state.

The Army Corps of Engineers already issued a smallcraft advisory for the Arkansas River on April 18 because of the river’s rapid flows. The corps warns boaters to stay off the river when its flow rate reaches 75,000 cubic feet per second. Forecasters say the Arkansas River will crest at a flow rate of 300,000 cubic feet per second early next week, corps spokeswoman Laurie Driver said.

“We are advising people who live along low areas of the Arkansas River to move equipment and farm animals to higher ground,” she said.

The river is expected to crest at 364 feet Sunday evening at Ozark. Flood stage there is 357 feet. The river reached 369 feet on Dec. 29, 2015 — the third-highest recorded there — when heavy rain deluged Oklahoma and Arkansas.

In Dardanelle, the Arkansas River will rise to 36 feet by Monday morning. Flood stage there is 32 feet.

On Tuesday, the river is expected to rise to 17.5 feet in Little Rock, where the flood stage is 23 feet.

Corps teams built a temporary flood wall and sandbagged around a powerhouse below the dam at Beaver Lake on Friday in preparation for flooding.

The lake level had already risen by 5 feet from rain earlier in the week, Driver said. Beaver Lake and Table Rock Lake will receive most of the rainfall’s runoff in northern Arkansas this weekend, she said.

“We’re expecting to see 8 to 9 inches of rain in southern Missouri over the weekend,” Driver said. “That will all run into the White River basin.”

The White River is expected to crest at 32 feet Sunday. Flood stage at the Izard County town is 19 feet.

Officials suspended rescue efforts Friday evening for the man who fell out of a canoe into the Buffalo National River on Wednesday morning.

Four men launched canoes at Kyles Landing in Newton County and two fell into the water when their canoes overturned, said Caven Clark, a spokesman for the Buffalo River National Park.

Teams rescued one canoeist on a small island upstream from the landing about 3 p.m. Wednesday. Others saw the second man in the rapids but could not reach him.

The river was expected to rise from 10.2 feet Friday evening to 45 feet Sunday morning.