Shaky forecast

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — The sun will not shine bright on Churchill Downs on this Kentucky Derby day.

Today’s Kentucky Derby will feel more like November. It will be overcast at soggy Churchill Downs, with temperatures in the low to mid-50s and a 70 percent chance of occasional showers, and maybe even a thunderstorm or two.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — The sun will not shine bright on Churchill Downs on this Kentucky Derby day.

Today’s 143rd edition of America’s rite of spring will feel more like November. It will be overcast at soggy Churchill Downs, with temperatures in the low to mid-50s and a 70 percent chance of occasional showers, and maybe even a thunderstorm or two. That would be an improvement on Friday’s rain-soaked Kentucky Oaks day.

According to weather.com, there’s a 6 percent chance of precipitation two hours before the Derby’s 5:46 p.m. post time. A sloppy or muddy surface maximizes confusion in a race that annually bedevils serious and casual horseplayers. It would be only the 43rd Derby run on a track not rated fast.

Among the field of 20, only five — Classic Empire, Battle of Midway, Hence, Tapwrit and Gormley — have won on a wet surface. Five lost their only try, and it will be a new experience for 10.

Then again, Orb never had raced on a wet surface but won the 2013 Derby anyway, coming from far back on a sloppy track to begin a streak of four winning favorites. That hadn’t happened since the 1970s, and the post-time betting choice hasn’t won five in a row since the 1890s.