Signs and portents in Fayetteville

Stakes are very high in Senate race

Fayetteville-centered state Senate District 4 now has a race the Democrats should win. They can lose it, though. The result will matter for the whole state.

Sen. Uvalde Lindsey, D-Fayetteville, will take a well-deserved retirement after a public service career capped by 10 years in the Legislature. He would have been a shoo-in for re-election. He first won his Senate office while Democrats still held a majority in both state Capitol chambers. That changed — drastically. Democrats are now trying to hang on to nine of the 35 seats in the Senate. They are reduced to 24 in the 100-member House.

This demise prompted a very good insight at a recent meeting of the Senior Democrats of Northwest Arkansas. Lindsey, along with Reps. Greg Leding and David Whitaker, both D-Fayetteville, were speaking. They were asked how many seats the Democrats should aim for in the next election. Both Leding and Lindsey answered that question correctly. They need one-quarter plus one in the House, because it takes a three-quarters vote to pass a budget bill. So 25 percent plus one is the threshold of relevance — by the rules. Then came the insight.

Whitaker, who has since become the new House minority leader, replied the Democrats need to win — period. They need to stop the slide and start the counter-attack. Any number would be fine as long as it goes up.

The prevailing view is that the conservative tide is still rising. A turnaround — any turnaround — would have a major effect on both parties. Republican confidence that they can be as conservative as they want would be shaken. Democratic spirits would rise.

This struck me as the most practical political pronouncement I have heard from either party in a very long time.

“The moral is to the physical as three is to one,” as Napoleon put it, kind of. The real quote is wordy, but says the same thing.

And that is what makes the District 4 race so important. True, winning that race alone will not make Democratic numbers go up. But a defeat there would be crushing for them. If they cannot win in a state Senate district with Fayetteville in it, what safe haven is left?

So no pressure, Greg. Leding is the first Democrat to announce his bid to succeed Lindsey.

Leding became a statewide Democratic darling while playing his part in the brave, wellfought but hopeless struggle to stop a GOP-dominated Legislature from allowing guns on state college campuses. In doing that, he represented his House district, which includes the University of Arkansas, Fayetteville campus. He also did not drop the issue after losing. He remains active in protests against gun violence.

Leding’s gallant but forlorn fight against guns on campus has won him far more attention than his bipartisan success on other issues. Such is modern politics.

People need to remember that the sponsor of that gun bill lives in the same town. While Leding’s House District 86 is the heart of Senate District 4, there are a whole lot of other vital organs outside of it. That is why this Senate race is not guaranteed for the Democrats.

The gun debate put Leding on the opposing side from the National Rifle Association, the most powerful political force in Arkansas other than the Southeastern Conference. If Leding becomes the Democratic nominee, I would not be surprised if the NRA takes, shall we say, a serious interest in this race.

True, the guns-on-campus debate made Leding friends, too. We will find out next year how many of them vote in Senate District 4. I could almost draw up a roster of remaining Arkansas liberals by scanning Leding’s Twitter feed.

To his credit, Leding remained notably calm and realistic while lavished with worshipful praise from lefty admirers of his anti-gun fight. “Talk Business and Politics” accurately summed up the heights of fantasy some of Leding’s fans attained in its Tweet about Leding’s announcement for Senate: “Take @gregleding off the short list of @ArkDems running for Governor.”

And there we have it: We are about to find out (if Leding even wins the primary) whether the great liberal backlash (if there is one) to Republican rule can win a state Senate race in Washington County. Meanwhile the Democratic Party dreams of the governorship, or at least making a credible challenge for it.

No pressure.