Forecasters say odds long for another mild winter in Arkansas

While the past two winters ranked among Arkansas’ top 10 warmest ever, don’t expect another mild winter when December rolls around, weather forecasters say.

National Weather Service statistics show it would be unprecedented for the state to have three consecutive winters with temperatures at least 3 degrees above average. In fact, two consecutive winters with such temperatures have occurred in the state only 17 times in the past 122 years, records show. The average temperature for Arkansas’ winter for the past century is 41.3 degrees.

“Statistically speaking, we’re leaning toward not as mild of a winter as we’ve seen,” said meteorologist Willie Gilmore of the National Weather Service in North Little Rock. “The odds are against it.”

Forecasters say moisture from the Gulf of Mexico should be more prominent in Arkansas this winter. If Arctic air from Canada surges into the state, as some expect, the combination of the moisture and frigid air is apt to produce more snow or ice than usual.

“That’s the trip card,” said Bob Smerbeck, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather at the Penn State meteorology and atmospheric science department. “You should begin seeing the coldest air blowing in from Canada to Arkansas in January and February.

“One of the players we’re looking at for the state is ice,” Smerbeck said. “We have low to moderate confidence Arkansas will see some ice this winter.”

Central Arkansas was devastated by up to 3 inches of ice in late December 2000, which knocked out power to 500,000 residents. In February 2009, another ice storm paralyzed much of northern Arkansas where electricity wasn’t restored to some residents until three weeks later.

“It’s been a fairly long time since we’ve had a catastrophic ice storm,” Gilmore said. “They seem to come about every eight years.”

Cool summers also are considered an indicator of colder winters — to a point. This summer’s average temperature of 77.6 degrees in Arkansas made it the 23rd-coolest on record dating to when meteorologists began jotting down daily temperatures and other weather observations in 1895.

In 1976, the state had the fourth-coolest summer in

history. The next winter was brutal and the average temperature of 36.7 degrees was 4.6 degrees below average for the season, making it the ninth-coldest winter.

But there are anomalies. The state’s eighth- and ninth-coolest summers were in 2004 and 1920. The following winters were the 15th- and 11th-warmest.

Throw in the La Nina effect — the cooling of waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that affect weather patterns in the southern United States — and the polar vortex — a pocket of icy air over the polar region that sometimes is displaced into the U.S. — and forecasting winter can be tricky.

That doesn’t even include the Arctic oscillation, an unpredictable rotating pattern of air currents over the North Pole that, when altered, can cause rapid changes as far south as Arkansas and Louisiana.

“There’s always a twist involved in forecasting,” Smerbeck said. “Do we have a weak La Nina? A strong one? Is the Arctic oscillation positive? Is it negative?”

AccuWeather releases its annual winter forecast each October. Forecasters for the service are calling for frigid air to blast the Northern Plains with subzero temperatures on a “regular basis.” The Great Lakes area from Wisconsin and Illinois to New York is expected to have more snow and ice this winter, and rain and snow is forecast for the northwestern and southeastern United States.

Smerbeck said volatile weather in the South can’t be ruled out. In January, 137 tornadoes touched down from Texas to Georgia. The chance for tornadic activity is expected to peak this winter in February.

Only Florida, Kansas and California are forecast to be spared any of winter’s wrath. AccuWeather predicts warm, dry conditions for those areas.

There are other forms of winter weather predictions for those who aren’t fans of meteorological science.

The Farmer’s Almanac, an annual magazine published in Lewiston, Maine, has printed long-range forecasts for 200 years now. This winter, the magazine projects, Arkansas will have “mild, soggy” conditions and “wild temperatures and precipitation swings.”

Some people also rely on weather folklore. For example, some subscribe to the theory that animals can predict weather. If squirrels hide nuts at the bases of trees, there will be little snowfall during the winter. If they pack them inside a hollow tree, expect lots of snow.

If spiders spin their webs on the south side of barns, it’ll be a hard winter, and if pigs squeal in December, it means a tough winter is ahead.

Persimmon seeds also are used to predict snowfall amounts. If the inside of a persimmon seed has the shape of a spoon, it means there’ll be heavy snowfalls. A knife shape means cutting winds are forecast, and a fork means a mild winter.

“Every year it’s worked perfectly,” said Earnie Bohner, owner of Persimmon Hill Farms in Lampe, Mo. “It’s all you need.”

Bohner has checked seeds yearly at his farm just north of the Arkansas and Missouri border near Branson. This year he cracked open seeds and found “forky-spoons.” He interpreted it to mean a mild winter with “one or two good snows.”

Debi Orr, owner of MidSouth Nursery in Jonesboro, looked at seeds and found spoons and knives — omens that northeast Arkansas will get lots of snow and cutting, cold weather.

“We’ll be digging out snow in bitter cold wind,” she said.

“I don’t scoff at the seeds,” she added. “It’s been right most of the time.”

Brandie Tibbs, an Arkansas State University folklorist instructor, said the lore is based upon common sense.

“If an animal puts on a heavier coat in the winter, nine times out of 10 years it will be colder,” she said. “Squirrels gather nuts in preparation for winter. If caterpillars have thicker fur, it’s a sign it’ll be cold.

“In all honesty, the weather service is not always right,” Tibbs said. “One day when they’re never wrong, we may forget folklore. But for now, it’s passed on from generation to generation.”

Smerbeck relies on historical weather data, radars, satellite imagery and temperatures of the Pacific Ocean when making his forecasts, but he doesn’t rule out folklore.

“There may be some stuff to that,” he said of the old tales. “Maybe the squirrels and caterpillars know things we don’t.”