Officials: Pennsylvania race no omen for Arkansas

WASHINGTON — Arkansas Republicans say Tuesday’s Pennsylvania congressional election was a fluke. Democrats hope it was a sign of things to come. Political scientists say Conor Lamb’s victory bodes well for Democrats nationally.

“It should’ve been a lock for Republicans, and it wasn’t,” said Janine Parry, a political scientist at the University of Arkansas, Fayetteville.

Pennsylvania’s 18th congressional district was a Republican-leaning district: Donald Trump carried it by 20 points in 2016. Democrats hadn’t fielded a congressional candidate there since 2012.

But Lamb, a political newcomer, was more than 600 votes ahead of Republican Rick Saccone in vote tallying that was still underway Friday. Neither candidate has been declared a winner.

If there are similar shifts across the country this fall, Democrats could regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives, Parry said.

But it’ll take more than a wave election to move Arkansas back into the Democratic column, she said.

“It would have to be a tsunami,” she said. “Looking at the sitting candidates and at the president’s approval rating, even then, the odds are

low that anything high profile flips in Arkansas.”

Of the 435 seats in the U.S. House, Democrats currently hold 192. They’ll need to increase that number to 218 to regain power.

All four Arkansas seats are held by Republicans who are proven vote-getters with large campaign war chests. And they’re running in a state that is now deeply red.

Trump carried Arkansas by 27 points in 2016, and he remains popular in the state, Parry said.

Heather Yates, a political science professor at the University of Central Arkansas, said Trump’s poll numbers are stronger in the Natural State than elsewhere.

A Gallup survey, released in January, listed 12 states where Trump’s approval ratings were 50 percent or higher; Arkansas was one of them.

A poll by Morning Consult showed Trump with a 52 percent approval rating in Arkansas in February and 40 percent disapproval.

Attacks on Trump, therefore, could be counterproductive, Yates said.

“They won’t play well,” she said. “That is not a winning strategy in Arkansas.”

Since Trump’s election, there have been several special elections nationwide to fill seats vacated because of resignations. Democrats in those contests have repeatedly topped their 2016 showings.

“You’re seeing this trend nationwide of [strong] Democratic turnout, Democrats performing better,” said Democratic Party of Arkansas Chairman Michael John Gray. “This is a good thing for Arkansas Dems.”

Ultimately, though, the key is to get more votes.

“Moral victories are not a good deal in politics. You need to win,” said Jay Barth, a political science professor at Hendrix College.

Republicans say Saccone deserves some of the blame for Tuesday’s loss.

The race pitted “a candidate with some flaws” against “a really good-looking candidate on the other side saying all the right things that would appeal to conservative voters,” said U.S. Rep. Steve Womack of Rogers.

“What it tells us more than anything is, ‘the quality of the candidate always is paramount,’” said Lt. Gov. Tim Griffin, who served two terms in Congress.

U.S. Rep. Bruce Westerman of Hot Springs suggested the outcome was an aberration.

“I think it is a wake-up call,” he said. “We have to take these races seriously and work hard but I don’t think it’s an indicator of what’s going to happen in November.”

While there is still disappointment over the previous presidential election, Gray said Democrats must focus on 2018 and beyond.

“As a party,” he said, “We need to be looking forward.”

The days when Arkansas Republicans could run unopposed for Congress are over, he added.

“Win or lose, the positive [thing] is that people are getting out there and running. They’re getting engaged,” he said. “Candidates are having to be held accountable for the decisions they’re making and that bodes well for Arkansas. It bodes well for the country.”

In races big and small, Democrats are going to be battling to move the country in the right direction, he said.

And, come Election Day, there’ll be reasons to celebrate.

“We won’t win every one of them, but we’ll win some,” he added.

AP/GENE J. PUSKAR Conor Lamb, the Democratic candidate in last week’s special election for Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District, celebrates with supporters Wednesday in Canonsburg, Pa. Political analysts in Arkansas say Lamb’s apparent victory could be a good sign...