Ask the criminals

Here’s a novel idea. Instead of incessant arguing about the efficacy of various crime policies and derivatives, such as gun control, why not devise a qualitative research program to interview violent felons on a regular basis?

The potential database is enormous. There are 1.3 million violent crimes reported annually. The felony parolee population exceeds 830,000, one-third of which fall into violent- and gun-crime categories. Among the 1.3 million inmates housed in state prisons are more than 700,000 violent criminals.

In short, the supply of possible interviewees is essentially endless.

Violent crime is a local, personal issue, but all the research surrounding it is published as national data. Most is quantitative in nature, which means that a sample is surveyed and the results projected over a larger population.

The questionnaires are long and cumbersome, which makes tabulations costly and timeliness impossible.

The Bureau of Justice Statistics “periodically” conducts surveys of state prison inmates, but the latest data available is almost 15 years old. The National Crime Victimization Survey results are unverified, relying only on respondent memory and honesty. Its purpose is solely to build an index of crimes for statistical analysis. The FBI’s Uniform Crime Report is likewise a numerical count, submitted voluntarily by law enforcement agencies. It’s always nearly a year in arrears; the 2017 report will be released soon.

Research producing statistical analyses of trends and averages has its uses and roles, but behavioral insights are not among them.

Information about “how many” and “how often” is valuable in determining the magnitude of a problem, but relatively useless in understanding the “why” or “how” or “why not” required to solve it.

This knowledge gap is an abomination in a technological society. In this age of advanced smartphones and constant connection and communication, it’s ridiculous to be waiting around for 10 months to be told how much crime there was a whole year ago—and to not be told anything at all about the criminals themselves.

The last truly insightful study of incarcerated felons was conducted in 1983.

The National Institute of Justice sponsored the study, which interviewed 1,874 felons in 10 states with an extensive questionnaire about personal opinions and behaviors specifically concerning guns.

The racial mix of felons was about equally black and white, and half had committed crimes with a gun.

Many of the startling results have been either forgotten or intentionally forsaken. Eight out of 10 (82 percent) felons agreed that criminals will always be able to get guns, and gun laws only affect law-abiding citizens.

This information was borne out by later BJS data reported in its 2004 survey—after myriad gun-control laws had been passed—that 84 percent of state prisoners armed at the time of their current offense were legally ineligible to purchase a gun.

Nine of out 10 respondents said flatly that a criminal who wants a gun will get one, no matter how much it costs. And two out of three said even if handguns were banned, they’d simply switch to a sawed-off shotgun or rifle.

The armed criminals were candid. Anti-gun activists and politicians, far less so.

When asked about various reasons a criminal might carry a gun, those listed as most important included the possibility their victim might be armed, the intimidation factor of brandishing a gun, and the potential need for it during getaway.

Strong majorities agreed that they worried more about meeting an armed victim than running into the police, and that burglars avoid houses when people are home out of fear of getting shot.

A strong majority (almost 2-to1) disagreed with the statement “if there were fewer guns, there would be less crime.”

These are answers from 35 years ago. Some of them will be different if asked today; many might be worse.

The 1983 NIJ survey also revealed some shocking insights about the formative years of violent criminals. When asked how old they were when they first did certain things, some of the numbers are staggering to consider.

Of those who ever carried a weapon during their crimes, one in five committed their first armed crime before their 14th birthday. More than 200 felons said they were younger than 14 the first time they tried to kill or seriously injure somebody.

When asked how often they had committed a physical assault before the age of 18, 82 percent said more than once, and 17 percent said dozens of times or more.

Criminals who become armed and violent by middle school will never reach the maturity required to respect any sort of gun law. If the gun-crime battle is indeed being lost before adolescence and the age of legal accountability, that’s something we need to know much more about.

And we need to know here, Arkansas, local. Ask today’s gun felons questions. Listen to their answers. Create criminal “personas” like marketers do, so state laws can be better evaluated against their intended effect.

The cost of violent crime and its aftermath is incalculable. The cost of a data-rich ongoing research initiative to learn more from criminals carrying guns would be nothing in comparison.