Trump’s secret weapon

Republicans scrambled to push through tax reform last year in part because they thought it would boost their chances in this year’s midterm elections. They were wrong about that—but last year’s tax reform may help President Donald Trump’s chances in 2020.

Some background: In the run-up to the 2016 election, the economy was steadily weakening. In the first quarter of 2015, year-over-year growth in GDP stood at 3.8 percent. That rate had declined to 1.3 percent by the second quarter of 2016.

Since the election, however, the economy and employee compensation have both recovered strongly.

It is surely ironic that a tax bill Republicans rushed through Congress last year comes too late to help them at the polls this year. Nevertheless, tax reform has provided a needed boost to the economy, and the oil and gas boom has increased the demand for manufacturing and construction workers. It’s just that rising oil prices mean that majority of Americans have seen little improvement in their daily finances, which is what matters most when they go to the polls next month.

Look more long-term, however, and the outlook for workers is more positive. Industry investment in infrastructure is projected to allow for strong increases in oil production growth in late 2019. Those increases will bring not only more jobs but also lower prices.

Which brings us to 2020. Today’s cost-of-living increases in inflation will probably reverse themselves in 2020, giving an extra boost to most working families. That boost could redound to Trump’s benefit as he seeks re-election.