Optimism in difficult times

Enlightenment portends hope for humankind

Steven Pinker’s new book Enlightenment Now: The case for reason, science, humanism, and progress paints an optimistic picture of global improvement since the 18th century Age of Enlightenment that rejected medieval superstition and authority, and instead valued reason, evidence, and individuals. The book offers hope to those who feel oppressed by current events and by doomsayers like me.

The book’s theme is the basic Enlightenment value: Knowledge based on evidence and reason should be used to enhance human welfare. The Enlightenment transformed the ultimate question “How can I be saved” into the pragmatic “How can I be happy?”

The book’s defining section comprises 15 ways humankind has benefited from Enlightenment values, summarized by Barack Obama’s observation: “If you had to choose blindly what moment you’d want to be born, you’d choose now.” Here are summaries of those 15 chapters.

Life expectancy has surged, from 30 years during 1760-1900, to 75 years today.

Health has sky-rocketed: Epidemics that killed millions have vanished, scientific medicine has saved billions.

Hunger has plummeted on every continent. Famine, common even in Europe until 1800, has nearly vanished. World sustenance has risen rapidly since 1960, led by China.

The annual Gross World Product, essentially zero for thousands of years, zoomed to 5 trillion (current dollars) in 1900 and 110 trillion in 2000, a boom that extends to most people within most nations. Extreme poverty is vanishing, and the world is becoming middle class.

Despite concerns about the richest 1 percent, income inequality has plunged since 1960, and all income groups have gained. Poverty has declined enormously.

Environmental progress is spottier. America slashed five major air pollutants by two-thirds despite a 40 percent population increase and a doubled economy. Deforestation is a problem, but it’s near zero in temperate forests and declining in tropical forests. Oil spills have plummeted. Protected zones are spreading. However, “the effect of greenhouse gases is unquestionably alarming. … Humanity has never faced a problem like it.” Pinker recommends taxing carbon while expanding renewables and nuclear power.

Destructive wars between “great powers” were constant during 15001800, but occurred during only 20 percent of the years 1800-1953, and not at all since then. Conflict between uniformed armies has declined since 1945 and been non-existent since 2003 (Iraq). Today’s wars are national, with outside involvement, and essentially confined to the Mideast and its neighbors.

The industrialized world, at least, is safer. Homicide has dropped from rates of 20 to 200 per 100,000 people per year to nearly zero with only Mexico and America remaining around 20. Motor vehicle deaths are down by a factor of ten, with pedestrian, airplane, falling, fire, drowning, and occupational deaths following similar trends.

Terrorism grabs headlines, but is near zero statistically in America (40 deaths in a typical year) and Western Europe (175) in comparison with homicide (16,000 USA, 4,000 Europe) and motor vehicle death (35,000 USA, 19,000 Europe). It’s a problem in war-torn nations (38,000 in a typical year).

Democracy is spreading. This Enlightenment experiment began in America, expanded to 29 nations by 1922, to 36 by 1962, then skyrocketed. The number of “reasonably democratic” nations has risen from 31 in 1971, to 52 in 1989, to 87 in 2009, to 103 in 2015.

Civil rights have improved. In America, questionnaires show that racist, sexist, and homophobic opinions have declined from 40 percent of the population in 1985 to 20 percent in 2013. On-line racist, sexist, or homophobic jokes, racial hate crimes, rape, and violence against spouses have all plummeted since 1995, and 100 nations have decriminalized homosexuality.

Knowledge is increasing. Literacy has risen in western nations from 10 percent in 1500 to 90 percent today, and worldwide from 10 percent in 1800 to 80 percent today.

Life quality has improved. Weekly work hours in western nations declined from 65 in 1870 to 40 in 2000, people are retiring earlier, US housework has plummeted, leisure hours have increased.

Are we happier? Historical evidence is lacking, but recent happiness surveys show richer people within a given nation are happier, and richer nations have more happy people. So rising national GDPs probably imply rising global happiness. In confirmation, happiness increased in nearly all European nations in tandem with each nation’s rise in GDP. But America is exceptional, ranking surprisingly low despite a high per-capita GDP.

But might it all crash? Pinker sees two global existential threats to civilization: climate change and nuclear war. Humanistic evidence-based action can resolve both, but such action hasn’t happened yet.

The lesson is that enlightenment values work.

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