Kentucky Derby runs through Oaklawn

As of Wednesday, a 100 percent chance of rain was forecast for the Kentucky Derby on Saturday.

A wet surface should have ensured Arkansas Derby winner Omaha Beach as the favorite, but with his scratch Wednesday the horse to be could be Improbable.

Improbable ran second by a length to Omaha Beach in the Arkansas Derby.

Oaklawn Park was muddy that day, and Omaha Beach and Improbable skipped across the quagmire like it was a field of freshly mowed clover.

Oaklawn has three live mounts in the Derby in addition to Improbable. There is closer Long Range Toddy and Game Winner, the new morning-line favorite. Country House is also in after running in the Louisiana and Arkansas derbies, but for this Saturday it appears his owners have Derby fever, which includes really good seats on the biggest day of the year in thoroughbred racing.

Of course in the 20-horse Kentucky Derby field, a favorite can still be 4-1, and who doesn’t want to quadruple their money. It could still be an Oaklawn exacta. Handicappers have been scratching their heads as to what has happened to Game Winner, who won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in November but has two seconds in two outings this year.

An Improbable-Game Winner (that combination should be boxed, and understand both are trained by Bob Baffert) exacta will pay pretty well, whether the track is wet or not.

Anything can happen in a field that big with 3-yearolds going 11/4 miles, and the last thing any owner or jockey wants is to draw the No. 1 post because usually you get stuck on the rail with no place to run.

Improbable was on the rail in the Arkansas Derby and may have lost more ground getting out of the crowd than he actually lost by. But he’s trained by Baffert, except when he’s at Oaklawn, and that makes him hard to pull for.

Baffert is the undisputed king of thoroughbred racing. He has the richest owners in his pocket and controls the jockey colony at Santa Anita.

How else could he have won Triple Crowns with American Pharoah in 2015 and last year with Justify?

Give Gary “Red Dog” Hartlage those types of wellbred, expensive horses and the best riders, and he’d win Triple Crowns, too.

Baffert also has Roadster, whose only loss was to Game Winner.

Jockey Mike Smith had his choice of horses for the Derby, and unfortunately he picked Omaha Beach over Game Winner.

One thing is very obvious with this field: Oaklawn Park is THE place to prepare for the Kentucky Derby.

Omaha Beach was the initial morning-line favorite at 4-1 ahead of Game Winner at 5-1, and Improbable and Santa Anita Derby winner Roadster at 6-1.

Maximum Security, winner of the Florida Derby, and Wood Memorial winner Tacitus are both 10-1.

War of Will, the odds-on favorite to win the Louisiana Derby who finished ninth, is 20-1. He did draw the No. 1 hole. The long-shot winner of that race, By My Standards, is also 20-1.

In years’ past, Tacitus most likely would be the favorite. He’s got the breeding with Tapit as his sire, the trainer in Bill Mott and the rider in Jose Ortiz. Gamblers from the Northeast will make sure the winner of three consecutive races — all at faster times than the previous one — won’t be 10-1, but he’ll still be a very nice price.

Which brings us back to Improbable. Once he got off the rail and clear of traffic he ran as good, or maybe better, in the Arkansas Derby as Omaha Beach.

By post time, who knows who will be the favorite, but most likely they prepped at Oaklawn.