Tropical storm warning issued for Puerto Rico

SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico — A tropical storm warning was issued for Puerto Rico, including nearby islands Vieques and Culebra, as well as the U.S. Virgin Islands as Tropical Depression Karen was expected to pass near or directly over Puerto Rico today.

At 10 p.m. CDT on Monday, Karen was centered 160 miles south of San Juan and moving north-northwest at 10 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. Forecasters said it was expected to strengthen into a tropical storm again, perhaps before reaching Puerto Rico. The bulk of shower and thunderstorm activity remains well south of the center of circulation.

Still, Puerto Rico Gov. Wanda Vazquez announced Monday that she was canceling classes and closing public agencies as the system approached. Vazquez also activated the National Guard and urged people in flood-prone areas to seek shelter.

The island is still recovering from Hurricane Maria, which hit as a Category 4 storm two years ago and is estimated to have caused more than $100 billion in damage. More than 25,000 homes still have blue tarps for roofs, and the electric grid remains unstable.

“It’s a reality that we might have power outages,” Vazquez said.

Of greater significance is the potential for locally heavy rainfall, particularly over the eastern half of the island. Rainfall totals are forecast to range between 2 and 4 inches, but a few isolated locales could pick up some 6-inch totals. This risk includes the San Juan metro area.

Any heavy rainfall can be problematic in the mountainous terrain of Puerto Rico, which has the highest potential for isolated flash flooding.

Karen’s future depends on whether its mid-level vortex survives the trip past Puerto Rico. The mountains could shear it apart. But if Karen passes between Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, its axis of spin will remain largely intact. That scenario would make it one to watch in the Bahamas, and possibly even the southeast United States and Gulf of Mexico.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Jerry was moving toward the north-northwest and was projected to pass north of Bermuda by Wednesday morning. It was about 300 miles southwest of Bermuda and had sustained winds of 65 mph Monday, but it was expected to weaken slightly by the time it passes the island.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Lorenzo formed over the far eastern Atlantic and was projected to become a major hurricane while curving away from land. It was centered about 270 miles south-southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands and had maximum sustained winds of 50 mph.