FBI report needs revamp

Reading the FBI’s news release on the 2018 Uniform Crime Reporting statistics is a prime example of meaningless national information that colors public opinion.

First of all, there’s nothing uniform about crime across the country, as the most cursory glance at Offense Table 5—crime by state—reveals. Some states have rates so much higher than others that it doesn’t seem like they’re part of the same nation.

The large nationally amalgamated summary of crime data from 18,586 reporting agencies is a brontosaurus in today’s segmented, geo-fenced digital age. Reporting everything in nationwide sums and rates means literally nothing with regard to influencing governmental policy initiatives or resource requirements that could address and alleviate the high-crime problem that has persisted since the 1970s.

Indeed, despite possessing a treasure trove of information that would identify, qualify and quantify violent crime over dozens of cross-referenced criteria down to individual precincts, the FBI does none of that. It would be better if the FBI took a big-data approach to its statistical storehouse, and started sharing pertinent, actionable information about the scourge of violent crime in America.

Adding up all the 1.2 million violent crimes and dividing them by the Census population figure, the FBI calculates a national violent-crime rate of 369 offenses per 100,000 inhabitants.

That’s a number, and a ratio. But does it really tell us anything we need to know? What does it mean to all the cities, counties and communities containing less than 100,000 people?

Can we simply move the decimal point to account for smaller locales? Is it statistically the same to claim 36.9 violent offenses per 10,000 inhabitants as a small-town average? Or 3.69 per 1,000?

Mathematically, perhaps. But realistically, not at all. The difference in the rate of violent crime between metropolitan statistical areas and non-metropolitan counties can be chasmic. The FBI’s numbers point this out, but you have to look hard to find them.

In Illinois, for example, the statewide murder rate is 6.9 per 100,000 inhabitants, and the state robbery rate is 111.5. But whether somebody resides in a rural county or a metro area makes a world of difference in the crime rate where they live.

For those 11.3 million people living among Illinois’ MSAs, the murder rate is 10 times higher than for those living in non-metro counties. The robbery rate is 30 times higher; the aggravated assault rate is almost 50 times higher!

In raw numbers: metro versus non-metro robberies—14,007 versus 27; aggravated assaults—27,952 versus 614.

In short, rural Illinois is a very safe place to live. A close analysis of crime data show that in populous states, it’s the old city mouse/country mouse story over and over: City dwellers endure the risk and danger of violent crime in multiples (sometimes exponents) over that of country-living folks.

Consider all the bad crime news out of Baltimore, and then this shocker: There wasn’t a single murder in Maryland’s non-metropolitan county areas last year. A zero murder rate for rural Marylanders is accompanied by a robbery rate that is 11 times less than the metro rate.

Parsing the data another way, including all crimes from MSAs, cities outside MSAs and non-metro areas: 99.6 percent of the murders, 97.6 percent of the rapes, 99.3 percent of the robberies and 98.4 percent of the aggravated assaults reported in Maryland were committed in one of the state’s MSAs.

Here are the same comparisons for some neighboring states for percentage of murders, rapes, robberies and assaults committed in cities:

■ In Missouri, 89, 82, 96 and 81 percent.

■ Tennessee, 91, 84, 96 and 86 percent. ■ Louisiana, 91, 89, 93 and 83 percent. ■ Texas, 93, 96, 99 and 97 percent.

Looking within our own state boundaries, Arkansas’ UCR statistics are a disgrace. Our MSA violent-crime rate—where 1.9 million of our 3 million population resides—is 614 offenses per 100,000 inhabitants.

That miserable statistic groups the Natural State in with some very undesirable company. Besides D.C., which is basically one ultra-highcrime city, only three other states have higher MSA violent-crime rates than Arkansas: Alaska, New Mexico and Tennessee.

What’s worse is that several states with bad city-crime reputations have an MSA rate much lower than ours: Michigan, 20 percent lower; Illinois, 31 percent lower; Florida, 37 percent lower.

What’s worst of all is that in some other rural states, the MSA violentcrime rate is less than half of ours: Idaho, 61 percent lower; Iowa, 58 percent lower; Kentucky, 56 percent lower; Mississippi, 57 percent lower.

As Arkansans, we shouldn’t be okay with this.

Clearly, the story of violent crime in America and Arkansas is a tale of two residential categories, though you’d never get that from reading the FBI’s press release, or the ensuing media coverage. Digging into the data is possible, however—and eye-opening.

Next week: a look at individual agency violent-crime statistics may help in the search to find ways to reduce Arkansas’ unacceptably high rates.