Tempered with caution

Gov. Asa Hutchinson prepares to begin relaunching cau- tiously and incrementally a few dormant elements of the state’s economy.

In doing so, he cites numbers showing that Arkansas has a lower percentage of the population that is infected with the coronavirus than most other states and is coming in well under public health officials’ projections of cases, hospitalizations and deaths.

Just so we know: Those numbers have nothing to do with what might happen if we venture back out recklessly. Other states will not matter. Worst-case scenarios could start to be relevant for accuracy, not celebrated for inaccuracy.

One explanation for our lower rate of infections is that we have had a slower rate of testing than most states.

Here is the most vivid example: Utah has about 3.3 million people, Arkansas about 3.1 million. Utah reported 4,343 confirmed coronavirus cases as of Monday, while Arkansas reported 3,111, nearly a thousand of whom were prisoners with no sign of community spread.

That’s good for us, right?

Not entirely or exactly.

As of Monday, Utah reported testing 102,439 persons and we reported testing 40,671.

As a percentage of the population, Arkansas indeed is lower in the infection rate. But as a percentage of established fact — meaning of those actually tested — our rate of infection is much higher.

Utah reported on Monday a total 45 deaths, and Arkansas 52.

Our politicians will explain that Utah had a stronger baseline of socioeconomic and physical health than poorer Arkansas. They will explain that Utah has a thriving high-tech community that stepped up to help secure tests.

All of that is true.

And all of that means Arkansas should begin to relaunch its economy because … ?

It is true, and a source of relief, that our coronavirus hospital cases in Arkansas have numbered around 80 to 100 at a time, while worst-case scenarios were for thousands.

But that does not begin to recommend that people get out and frolic freely among the virus. It means our social distancing was effective and that we have not overwhelmed our health-care system.

Let’s say you have eaten healthily and exercised per doctor’s orders for two months. Let’s say your blood pressure is down to a good level. That does not mean you should haul your healthier self to the fast-food window for only one or maybe two burgers and only a half-order of fries.

Now, having said all of that, I must hasten to acknowledge quite on the opposite hand a powerful economic and political truth. It is that Hutchinson has no choice but to begin scheduling a restarting of some parts of the Arkansas economy, starting with the safest, as he is doing.

The economic condition requires it, and conservative thought demands it.

And I also must hasten to add that I find myself trusting Hutchinson as deliberate, thoughtful and cautious, even reassuringly micromanaging. I am heartened when he says, “I was pressured to ‘shelter in place’ and close more businesses. I resisted. I followed public health guidance and will continue to do so.”

I just wish he had more testing kits. As Dr. Anthony Fauci has explained, the main factor in relaunching the economy is identifying and quickly separating the infected.

All of that is to say the numbers Hutchinson offers in support of a relaunch amount to fuzzy math. It’s political spin.

But I’m thinking we have a fighting chance to relaunch slowly and responsibly in a way that begins to rekindle the economy and ease these festering fears.

It’s ultimately up to us.

Hutchinson said it best the other day. What has gotten us this far, he said, is responsible citizen behavior in social distancing and mask-wearing. And that is what will protect and sustain us — if we do it — as we head out in stages over the next month to six weeks.

It will keep us safe through elective surgeries and as we go back to the dentist and into state parks and retail stores and for our haircuts and workouts and even into our favorite eateries for sit-down meals.

And consider another thing, which I put on social media this way the other day: Just because the governor writes my haircut into the third act of his drama does not mean I must play the role. And as another fellow put it, his hardest job will be to talk his devout pop of 86 out of going back to church the first week they open the doors.

While the numbers are not on Asa’s side, the public’s mood and the political reality are.

Individual lives matter the most, but the survival of the economy also matters the most, and a leader must calibrate and synchronize.

He also must instruct, inspire and admonish. And he will have to do that in this case without using those charts and graphs he seems so proud of.

For every one of those, Utah can show a better one.

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