Facts amid confusion

Each day pretty much brings another gray wall of clouds when it come to uncertainty and confusion over this crippling pandemic from China. The “facts” of covid-19 as presented hour after hour in the news can indeed be bamboozling as well as contradictory. The daily routine, after more than a month of wall-to-wall news briefings, has been to review the number of new cases, hospitalizations and deaths while creating more uncertainty in the process.

By the way, I’m still waiting to hear how many of the previously infected have been ruled as cured and how many of the cured were reinfected. I’ve eagerly searched for some clarity after hunkering down under voluntary house arrest for weeks now, which brings me to today’s offering. I went hunting for some rays of sunshine in the daily gloom engulfing our nation’s health and seriously damaged economy.

There were a few stories outside the mainstream that raised my hopes. Make of them what you will at a time where credibility and trust in calculated words continuously uttered from microphones have left me searching for truths.

Dr. David Atlas, a senior fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution and former chief of neuroradiology at Stanford University Medical Center, recently argued in an op-ed written for The Hill that Americans have become “desperate for sensible policymakers who have the courage to ignore the panic and rely on facts. Leaders must examine accumulated data to see what has actually happened, rather than keep emphasizing hypothetical projections; combine that empirical evidence with fundamental principles of biology established for decades; and then thoughtfully restore the country to function,” he wrote.

To that I’d add: Stop the flagrant political partisanship and fear-based reporting over this health and economic calamity afflicting our nation.

There are five facts folks need to know and understand, Atlas said. N0. 1 is “the overwhelming majority of us do not have any significant risk of dying from covid-19.” Atlas cited a recent Stanford antibody study that estimated the fatality rate for those infected with the novel coronavirus is likely 0.1 to 0.2 percent. In contrast, the embattled World Health Organization (that has failed the world so abysmally in dealing with this pandemic) had estimated the number at 3 to 4 percent.

An article in The Federalist reinforced Atlas’ contention, saying fresh results from random antibody tests in New York state suggest as many as 2.7 million people there have had the virus. That, along with the 15,000-plus deaths attributed to covid-19 (questionably, in my view) constitutes a fatality rate of 0.5 percent. And that’s according to Gov. Andrew Cuomo.

The WHO estimate of mortality that prompted the isolation policies worldwide was 20 to 30 times higher than what is proving true, Atlas said.

The second overlooked fact, Atlas wrote, is that “protecting older, atrisk people eliminates hospital overcrowding.” In New York City, which has more than 34,600 hospitalizations, the rate of hospitalizations from the virus for those under 18 is 0.01 percent. For those 65 to 74, 1.7 percent were hospitalized.

Fact 3, Atlas continued, is that isolation policies thwart widespread immunity to the virus and invariably prolong the problem. He said decades of medical science demonstrates a viral infection allows exposed people to generate an immune response, thereby controlling wider spread amid the population through so-called herd immunity.

However, immunity constitutes the primary purpose of widespread immunization for other viral diseases, such as flu—to assist with population immunity, he said. “In this virus, we know that medical care is not even necessary for the vast majority of people who are infected. It is so mild that half of infected people are asymptomatic, shown in early data from the Diamond Princess ship, and then in Iceland and Italy.”

The asymptomatic population has been “falsely portrayed as a problem requiring mass isolation,” he elaborated. “In fact, infected people without severe illness are the immediately available vehicle for establishing widespread immunity. By transmitting the virus to others in the low-risk group who then generate antibodies, they block the network of pathways toward the most vulnerable people, ultimately ending the threat.”

That’s an intriguing thought that never dawned in my tiny brain.

The fourth fact, wrote Atlas: “People are dying because other medical care is not getting done due to hypothetical projections.” He said, as most of us fully realize, including here in Harrison and across our state, many local hospitals abruptly halted their regular bread and butter—what were deemed “nonessential” procedures and surgery.

Ceasing such treatments for weeks “prevented diagnoses of life-threatening diseases, like cancer screening, biopsies of tumors now undiscovered and potentially deadly brain aneurysms,” he said.

No. 5: “We have a clearly defined population at risk who can be protected with targeted measures.The overwhelming evidence all over the world consistently shows that a clearly defined group—older people and others with underlying conditions— is more likely to have a serious illness requiring hospitalization and more likely to die from covid-19.”

The appropriate policy based on biology and evidence already available is “a more focused strategy,” he continued. That would be to “protect the known vulnerable, self-isolate the mildly sick and open most workplaces and small businesses with some prudent large-group precautions.”

A piece by commentator Stacy Lennox published on the conservative-oriented PJ Media website also reflected some relatively positive news stemming from a news conference the other day that got limited media play in the mainstream national press (which surprises me not at all).

Bill Bryan, undersecretary for Science and Technology at the Department of Homeland Security, talked about heat, UV light rays, and humidity reduce the presence and spread of the virus and can kill it. He began the press briefing by talking about the half-life of covid-19, using a chart showing how quickly the virus degrades at various temperatures and humidity.

“Instead [of focusing on that positive development], ABC News decided to share a poll that says large majorities of Americans are concerned about the virus and believe moving too quickly to reopen the economy is dangerous,” Lennox wrote.

“Do you think their opinions might change if they knew covid-19 behaves an awful lot like the flu in the summer? That being out in the sun and warmer temperatures will lower your risk of catching the disease?”

This had to be welcome news indeed for many, especially for governors like Ron DeSantis in Florida who’ve been predictably lambasted by some in the mainstream media for recently opening beaches and other outdoor spaces. Yet these findings suggest that being outdoors during sunny weather is where the virus is least likely to spread.

I saw a lot of media guffawing about UV rays and disinfectants but relatively few headlines touting this good news. There had been some previous uncertainty about how the virus would behave under different conditions, causing the experts to pause at assuring us it would reduce circulation in the summer months.

Finally, valued readers, personal finance website WalletHub lists Arkansas as the sixth easiest state when it comes to being able to adhere to social distancing. There’s some positive news for sure.

Now go out into the world and treat everyone you meet exactly how you’d like them to treat you.

Mike Masterson is a longtime Arkansas journalist, was editor of three Arkansas dailies and headed the master’s journalism program at Ohio State University. Email him at mmasterson@arkansasonline.com.