FALL in travel forecast; CDC says stay put.

AAA predicts holiday journeys will decrease by 29% from 2019

For many would-be travelers, it’s home for the holidays this year.

At least 34 million fewer people will be traveling during the Christmas season, according to AAA, which is North America’s largest motoring and leisure travel organization.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention urges Americans not to travel for the holidays this year, warning that travel increases the chance of getting and spreading covid-19.

“Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths across the United States are rising,” according to cdc.gov. “As cold weather moves in, people spend more time indoors. As the holidays approach, take steps to slow the spread of covid-19. Wear a mask, stay at least 6 feet apart, avoid crowds and wash your hands often. … Travel can increase your chance of spreading and getting covid-19. Postponing travel and staying home is the best way to protect yourself and others from covid-19.”

While many will stay home this holiday season, AAA says about 84.5 million Americans may still travel from Wednesday through Jan. 3.

That’s a decline in travel of at least 29% when compared with the previous year.

“While Thanksgiving is traditionally spent gathering with friends and family, the year-end holidays are when Americans often venture out for longer, more elaborate vacations. That will not be the case this year,” said Paula Twidale, senior vice president of AAA Travel. “Public health concerns, official guidance not to travel, and an overall decline in consumer sentiment have encouraged the vast majority of Americans to stay home for the holidays.”

AAA expected about 50 million people would travel for the Thanksgiving holiday, which would have been a decline of 10% from 2019.

“While final Thanksgiving travel numbers are not yet available, AAA expects the decline to be closer to 1520%, as the CDC and state and local authorities advised against holiday travel,” according to a news release from AAA.

Nick Chabarria, a spokesman for AAA in Missouri, said demand for gasoline was down for the Thanksgiving holiday.

“While the majority of Americans who chose to travel went by car, we saw U.S. gasoline demand down 12% compared to demand for Thanksgiving week last year,” he said “In fact, the holiday week saw the lowest demand numbers since 1997 — 23 years ago. While AAA did not track travel in 1997, it’s estimated that fewer than 31 million people traveled by car that year.”

Chabarria said air travel seems to be tracking close to AAA’s initial projections, being down more than 50% nationwide from last year.

“TSA checkpoint data seemed to stall at 40% of 2019 totals,” he said in an email.

Chabarria said business and international travel appears to be “much more impacted than leisure.”

Air travel took a dive after the pandemic became widespread in the United States in March.

The number of passengers boarding flights at Little Rock and Northwest Arkansas airports dropped by 93% and 95%, respectively in April, when compared with April 2019.

Since then, things have improved a bit.

In November, Bill and Hillary Clinton National Airport/ Adams Field in Little Rock had 42,369 outbound passengers, a 53% decline from 90,921 in November 2019.

Also in November, the Northwest Arkansas National Airport had 28,649 outbound passengers.

That is a drop of 62% when compared with 76,199 outbound passengers in November 2019.

Road trips are still the preferred method of travel during the pandemic.

“Most Americans who decide to travel will do so by car, with road trips accounting for 96% of holiday travel,” according to AAA. “Up to 81 million Americans will travel by car, a decline of at least 25% compared to last year. Auto travel is expected to replace some trips previously taken by bus, train or airplane, given the flexibility, security and comfort traveling by car provides.”

For those who decide to drive for the holidays, gas prices are about 50 cents cheaper per gallon than this time last year, according to AAA.

While outdoor activities are curtailed during the winter, there are still hiking and other activities in parks around the state.

Grady Spann, director of Arkansas State Parks, said it looks to be a busy holiday season for state parks.

“If we look at occupancy in cabins and camping compared to last year, we will be as busy if not more,” he said. “Cabins last year were at 34.25% and this year 37.63%. Camping last year was at 8.04% and this year 12.53%. Lodges are down a bit compared to last year — 28.01% last year and this year 21.64%. These occupancy rates are through Dec. 17 so they may change for the year.”

One road trip opportunity every winter is the Arkansas Trail of Holiday Lights.

“Towns across The Natural State are taking part with events and activities modified to adhere to social distancing requirements,” according to Arkansas Tourism, a division of the Arkansas Department of Parks, Heritage and Tourism. “Displays in many locations will be lit into the new year, offering a fun way to hit the road and spend time with friends and family in a safe way.”

To view locations and events, go to Arkansas.com/trailofholidaylights.