Storms with snow, possible flooding on way as year ends

“The biggest hazards right now in the northwestern part of the state would be more along the lines of ice concerns.” — Justin Condry, meteorologist

LITTLE ROCK — The National Weather Service office in North Little Rock is predicting 2020 to be ushered out with a blast of heavy rain over much of the state and the possibility of wintry precipitation in parts of Northwest Arkansas.

Current forecast models indicate possible ice accumulations of one-tenth to a quarter inch possible Wednesday and/or Thursday night across extreme Northwest Arkansas, and possible light snow up to one-half inch possible across the northwestern one-third of the state Thursday night and into Friday as an approaching storm system exits the state.

Higher elevations in the Ozarks could see as much as an inch of snow but the National Weather Service said little to no accumulation of snow is expected.

According to staff meteorologist Justin Condry, a storm system situated just off the coast of California on Monday morning is forecast to move across the country over the next few days, with the long range computer models predicting heavy rain across the state to a potential for varying amounts of snow, sleet, or freezing rain in parts of the state from Little Rock north.

“The biggest hazards right now in the northwestern part of the state would be more along the lines of ice concerns,” Condry said. “But right now we’re still trying to figure out the timing of it because we’ve been watching the models go back and forth between an easterly track (of the frontal boundary) and a westerly track of that low.”

Condry said if the front keeps a more westerly track, the primary threat throughout the state will be heavy rain. But a more easterly track could bring the threat of wintry precipitation to portions of the state north of Little Rock.

“Right now, we’re becoming more confident that if we do see any wintry precipitation, it will more likely be freezing rain, maybe a few snowflakes, but that will be isolated more toward the northwestern part of the state, whereas the central part of the state will be getting mainly rain,” he said. “Timing-wise looks to be starting the morning of Wednesday into the overnight hours and all day Thursday, wrapping up early Friday morning. So New Year’s Day we’re going to see that low begin tracking out of the area and by the afternoon we’ll see conditions start improving.”

As the system moves closer to the state, temperatures will warm into the upper 50s in the northern part of the state, to the mid-60s in Central Arkansas, to near 70 degrees in the south on Wednesday before cooling into the lower 50s in the south to the lower 30s in the north Wednesday night.

Also, Condry said, as the system draws nearer, current uncertainties in the forecast will begin to firm up.

“As we get a little bit closer over the next couple of days, we’ll be able to nail down the

forecast a little bit more,” he said. “I would say by Tuesday afternoon we’ll probably have a pretty good idea on the track of the low pressure system and that’s the key to this. Once we have that track nailed down in the models we’ll be able give a more detailed and precise forecast.”

This is part of a developing storm system set to unleash inclement weather across the lower 48 states this week, with rain, snow, and severe weather likely to occur from coast to coast.

Winter weather advisories and winter storm warnings stretch from California to the Midwest, while a renewed risk of flooding was set to occur farther east.

A moderate snowfall is likely across a broad area of the Intermountain West and the Great Plains, where moisture on the cool side of the system will fall as snow. It comes just days after Minneapolis and the Upper Midwest were snarled by a blizzard that crippled travel.

Meanwhile, windy conditions and heavy rain are possible across the Mississippi River Valley, Appalachians and Eastern Seaboard toward the end of the week, while the threat of severe weather brews across portions of the Gulf Coast. Cities such as Charlotte, N.C., Columbia, S.C. and Charleston could be dealing with strong to severe thunderstorms, including the risk of tornadoes, by late this week.

Forecast models for Arkansas on Monday afternoon indicated the heaviest rain is likely to occur south of a line from between Mena and Hot Springs to Prescott and Texarkana, with amounts in that area predicted to range from 6 to 8 inches.

Elsewhere in the state, 4 to 6 inches are expected over the remainder of the northwest two-thirds of the state, with 3 to 4 inches possible in the northwest corner of the state and amounts ranging from less than an inch to 4 inches of rainfall in the southeast one-third of the state.

In northern Arkansas, rain during the day Wednesday and Thursday is predicted to turn to a wintry mix both nights as temperatures fall, giving way to a possible dusting of light snow Friday morning.

Over the Ouachitas and Central Arkansas, rain on Wednesday will turn heavy Wednesday night through Thursday night with light snow possible over the Ouachitas on Friday morning while precipitation over Central Arkansas will begin to exit the area.

Southern Arkansas is expecting rain beginning Wednesday and continuing through Thursday night before things begin drying out on Friday.

The primary hazards over most of the state, Condry said, are likely to be from wet roads, possible flash flooding in some areas, and icy conditions in the higher elevations of the northwest portions of the state as temperatures fall below freezing Wednesday night. Thursday night temperatures are expected to dip below freezing over most of the state, ranging from 32 degrees at El Dorado, Pine Bluff and Jonesboro to 29 degrees in Russellville and Mountain View to 25 degrees in Fayetteville.

Rain chances statewide will gradually increase during the day Wednesday to nearly 100% Wednesday night through Thursday and into Thursday night, then clearing during the day on New Year’s Day. In the north, current forecasts show the possibility of rain turning to frozen precipitation Thursday as temperatures fall below freezing.

Temperatures on Friday are forecast to range from highs near 50 degrees in the south to the lower to mid-30s in the northwestern part of the state to the lower 40s in the northeast and about 45 degrees in Little Rock.

Whichever way the wind blows, however, the National Weather Service models are in agreement on one thing.

“It’s going to be a wet exit for 2020,” Condry said.