Reports show rise in state’s economy

Economic activity continues to pick up in Arkansas as covid-19 restrictions are lifted here and across the nation, according to two recent studies.

A study by the Federal Reserve released Wednesday indicates business has improved in Arkansas since January — though companies are reporting problems with hiring workers. Most importantly, the state is faring better than the overall region and has had substantial improvements since November.

“The overall outlook among [Arkansas] contacts has turned optimistic since November,” the Fed’s Beige Book report said. “On net, 33% of contacts expect [statewide] economic conditions during the remainder of 2021 to be better than 2020.”

Earlier this week, a Creighton University study of economic conditions in the Midwest also reported an improved outlook among business leaders in Arkansas.

Creighton’s overall index for Arkansas increased to 79.8 from January’s 76.9. Components from the February survey of supply managers had new orders rated at 81.4, production or sales at 79.2, delivery lead time at 83.0, inventories at 81.1 and employment at 81.1.

“Since July of last year,

both durable and nondurable goods manufacturers in the state have expanded at a healthy pace,” said university economist Ernie Goss, who conducts the study. “According to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data, manufacturing wages for production workers in Arkansas have expanded by 4.6% since the onset of covid-19.”

The outlook for Arkansas was stronger than the report for the entire region, which covers eight other Midwest states. February’s overall index for the region improved to 69.6 from January’s 67.3. That lagged the 79.8 recorded for Arkansas.

Any score above 50 on the indexes suggests growth; a score below 50 suggests recession.

While both surveys show improvements in Arkansas, the Fed reported that several employers reported difficulties in hiring and retaining workers.

“Communities surrounding universities noted that virtual learning and fewer students on campus had not only hurt demand for their goods and services but also reduced a much-needed source of labor,” the Beige Book report said.

As Little Rock and Arkansas were showing improvements, the economies in the Louisville, Memphis and St. Louis regions were reporting no changes from January, according to the Fed.

The Beige Book reported that the nation as a whole is experiencing modest recovery though business leaders are optimistic about improvements over the remainder of the year. “Most businesses remain optimistic regarding the next 6-12 months as covid-19 vaccines become more widely distributed,” the report said.

All of Arkansas is part of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis region, which includes parts of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee.

Creighton’s survey covers Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota.