Lightning quick

The high-speed fall of Kabul

“A message is being sent, all right. The Taliban hears it loud and clear. And has taken Afghanistan’s second-largest city. Millions are fleeing to Kabul, the capital. But few in the intelligence business think the government forces stand a chance. The Taliban will take Kabul when it feels like it.”

— this column, Monday

In early March of 1975, the CIA put out a report that the government of South Vietnam might hold up through the dry season — that is, until 1976. Two months after that report, there was no

South Vietnam. The war was over. The country was united — under a communist government.

After that March ’75 report, the North Vietnamese forces only took about eight weeks to make their way to Saigon. The Americans saw the whole thing unfold on their television sets each night. It was a slow-motion train wreck. For two months the country talked about what they were watching — around their dinner tables, at university, in church parking lots.

If you went camping last week, and just got back, here’s the big international news: Afghanistan has fallen. The Taliban are in charge again.

It happened so fast that, around here, our editorial on Monday was outdated when people read it. Go to sleep on Sunday night, the fight was still on. Wake up Monday morning, Kabul has surrendered and the former president of Afghanistan is on the run.

From wire reports Monday morning: “The takeover of the sprawling capital city had been years in the making, but was ultimately accomplished in a single day. Insurgent fighters, fresh off their conquests in each of Afghanistan’s provincial hubs, faced little to no resistance as they entered the city Sunday morning.”

The American military was rushing to the airport to help with removing remaining Americans out of Kabul. The American flag was lowered at the embassy.

A few months ago, when President Biden announced the surrender of Afghanistan by Sept. 11 — a date many of us remember — some of us thought the pictures of helicopters removing people from an American embassy would come by Sept. 12. Not by Aug. 16.

Asked on American television if any of this reminded him of the panic in Saigon in the final days of the Vietnam War, the American secretary of state said: “This is manifestly not Saigon.” You’ll note his command of geography.

Antony Blinken also told CNN: “We went to Afghanistan 20 years ago with one mission, and that mission was to deal with the folks that attacked us on 9/11, and we have succeeded in that mission. The objective that we set, bringing those that attacked us to justice, making sure they couldn’t attack us again from Afghanistan, we’ve succeeded in that mission.”

We scarcely know where to start. Al-Qaida was the terrorist organization that attacked this country in 2001. But they were sheltered by the gang called the Taliban. And now the Taliban has control of a whole country again. Is al-Qaida far behind? Osama bin Laden may be dead, but his ideas aren’t.

If you’ve been watching the news out of Afghanistan this week, do you get the feeling that the Americans have made sure the bad guys couldn’t attack us again from Afghanistan, as the secretary insists? Neither do we.

As Daniel Patrick Moynihan once noted, intelligence is not to be confused with intelligence. Only a few days ago, American spooks said the government in Kabul could hold out at least another month, maybe longer.

As the president, now former president, of Afghanistan was in the air (on the way to somewhere) Sunday night, the administration held a conference call with representatives of Congress. Dispatches say the discussion was . . . pointed.

(Our own president spoke yesterday afternoon. More on that in the coming days.)

A couple of statements that the media reported this weekend stand out.

“What we’re seeing now is actually the opposite of ending the war. What we’re seeing now is a policy that will ensure, ensure, that we will, in fact, have to have our children and grandchildren continuing to fight this war at a much higher cost.” — Liz Cheney, U.S. representative from Wyoming.

And: “I hate to say this: I hope we don’t have to go back there. But it will be a threat to the homeland in a matter of time.” — Michael McCaul, U.S. representative from Texas.

Those seem to be the biggest worries, and rightfully so. If the thugs that run the Taliban have won the war, then why wouldn’t the American homeland be a target again?

But of all the things that keep us up at night, especially concerning that part of the world, is this possibility:

Afghanistan War II.