Trickeration on the way?

Gov. Asa Hutchinson will come out for his regular covid briefing this afternoon and likely say the numbers are a little better but we all really need to get vaccinated. It’s what he always says. Then he’ll likely pivot to say that we need to get these income-tax rates reduced to become effective by the first of the year so that the people can get relief as they navigate an uneven and oddly changing economy. He may also mention Arkansas’ competitive position against politically primitive neighboring states with no income taxes and stronger economies and that start with “T.”

Hutchinson likely will say that he trusts he can get the legislative votes for that in a special session without risking too much legislative roaming beyond his official agenda into what he’s aptly called craziness.

A governor sets the agenda for a special session. But legislators can vote by two-thirds to take up something else.

By “craziness,” Hutchinson means, by my phrasing, Trump-culture resentment bills such as protecting the freedom to infect one’s fellow man with a potentially lethal virus.

Over the weekend, I asked Hutchinson if the special session on income-tax cuts was still scheduled for next Monday only tentatively, and whether the situation might be getting more tentative by the hour because right-wing legislators are mad at him for speaking disapprovingly of their recent extended-session nonsense.

He replied: “You must remember that there are loud voices in the General Assembly (Senate particularly), but they do not represent the majority. Remember the loud voices lost most of their agenda in the extended regular session.

“I am still evaluating the special session and talking to members, and I will need a greater commitment by the members to get the items on the call passed before I issue the call. I will discuss this more on Tuesday.”

Short answer: He doesn’t have the votes yet, either to pass the bill or deny a two-thirds vote to suspend the rules to bring up other measures.

I’m told that there is a complication on the tax program itself. Advocates of the governor’s tax cut got the idea to try to go further than the governor’s top-rate cut from 5.9% to 5.4%.

They wanted to trigger a phased-in cut to 4.9% if a revenue steam permitted it. The idea was to try to take some of the steam out of the extreme-right fascination with eliminating the income tax altogether.

But lawyers said that writing a phased-in tax cut into law and then not doing it — if the revenue didn’t support it — might be interpreted as a tax increase, which would require a three-fourths rather than a simple majority vote.

A simple majority is hard enough. Three-fourths is kind of a pipe dream, less from policy resistance than the usual personal resentment, heightened as it for legislators who got their feelings hurt because Hutchinson dissed a couple of their bills last week in the process of letting those bills become law without his signature.

Speaking of dissing bills and letting them become law, Church Lady Sen. Jason Rapert of Bigelow is quite upfront that he will seek to get rules suspended to extend the special session beyond the governor’s agenda to enact that Texas abortion law.

The law is what famous Texan George W. Bush would call trickeration. It’s public policy by cleverness and chortling.

It does not authorize the state to do anything to stop abortion. It just authorizes people to file suits against abortion providers when they think they’ve detected that an abortion has occurred.

The theory is that you can’t sue the state because the state hasn’t done anything.

It’s that the U.S. Supreme Court has nothing to review until and unless the law is enforced by some modified Gomer Pyle-imitative citizen’s arrest of a doctor.

So, everyone get ready: Rapert will move on the bill. The Legislature could well oblige and pass the bill.

If so, Hutchinson, a lawyer burdened with a fairness gene, will say the law troubles him because we need more “guidance,” a favorite word, from litigation against the Texas law.

But he’ll surely let it become law without his signature because there is no way he can stay relevant in national Republican politics if he vetoes an anti-abortion bill for the mere privilege of being overridden.

If all Democrats and a mere 15 Republicans in the House would vote against any suspension of the rules to broaden the special session agenda, that would deny the two-thirds. I can’t name the 15 House Republicans, but I talked with a legislative insider last week who thought he could.

I’d prefer everyone forget the whole thing, but that doesn’t seem in the offing.