Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette

Get moving!

- Paul Krugman —––––– v–––––— Paul Krugman, who won the 2008 Nobel Prize in economics, writes for the New York Times.

Democrats are engaging in a lot of soul-searching after Tuesday’s elections. Much of it involves trying to find a better way to respond to the critical race theory attack, which was clearly effective even though it’s a dog whistle wrapped in a scam (public schools are not in fact teaching CRT). However, I have nothing interestin­g to say about how to deal with it.

Where Democrats have a clear path forward is on the closely related issues of covid-19 and the economy. What’s crucial is that Democrats not take the election setbacks as an indication that they’ve overreache­d, that President Joe Biden should back down on vaccine mandates, that their economic agenda is too left-wing.

What the public perceives isn’t a party doing too much, but a party doing too little. Biden and his allies need to end that sense of drift.

There’s no evidence of a significan­t voter backlash against Biden’s social spending proposals. True, most people have no idea what these proposals are — all they’ve heard are top-line numbers, with even those often reported without context ($1.75 trillion would be only 0.6% of gross domestic product over the next decade).

Beyond that, however, issue polling suggests that the main components of the proposed spending range from fairly popular to extremely popular.

And for what it’s worth, if Democrats pass something along the lines we’ve been hearing, Republican­s will have a hard time responding with an Obamacare-style fear campaign. They will of course try; but what in Build Back Better can be construed as death panels?

The problem, however, is that Congress still hasn’t passed anything. Political junkies may be following the twists and turns of negotiatio­ns between progressiv­es, who have given up a huge amount of ground, and pro-corporate Democrats, mainly Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema. But all the broader public knows is that no bill has been approved; the impression most people have is that Democrats aren’t getting anything done.

And this sense of drift comes when people are feeling bad about the economy: Consumer sentiment has plunged since the spring.

Why are consumers unhappy? Jobs are readily available; workers are quitting at record rates, which means they’re confident about finding new employment. But people are upset about rising prices and to some extent supply chain issues — although fears of empty store shelves appear to have been exaggerate­d.

It also doesn’t help that the economy hit something of an air pocket in the third quarter. Real GDP and total employment continued to grow, but not at the high rates many had expected.

What can the Biden administra­tion and its allies do to improve public perception­s of the economy?

Much of what’s distressin­g the public is beyond U.S. policymake­rs’ control, even though voters tend to blame whoever is in the White House. Gasoline prices, for example, have risen because of developmen­ts on world markets, not anything happening here. The same goes for food prices. And supply chain problems, mainly reflecting a scramble to buy durable goods at a time when people are afraid to consume in-person services, are hitting many countries.

America’s third-quarter economic slowdown, however, wasn’t matched abroad. For example, over the same period, euro area economies grew at an annual rate of almost 9%.

There’s no mystery about why we had a slowdown that wasn’t equaled in Europe. It was all about the Delta wave, which was much worse on this side of the Atlantic. That wave is receding.

As it does, early indication­s, including claims for unemployme­nt benefits and surveys of purchasing managers, suggest that a renewed economic surge is already underway. And as consumers start to feel safer, they may also shift demand away from stuff to services, which would ease some of the supply chain pressures.

So the way forward for Democrats seems fairly obvious.

First, pass something. It doesn’t have to be perfect; given incredibly low borrowing costs, it doesn’t matter whether the proposed sources of revenue will fully pay for the new spending. What’s crucial for the politics right now is that something significan­t gets passed and that Biden then goes out and sells it.

Second, control covid. The evidence is overwhelmi­ng that vaccine mandates work and that threats of mass resignatio­ns if workers are required to get shots are mostly empty. When confronted with the prospect of actually losing a job, a great majority of workers comply.

On Thursday, the Biden administra­tion announced that Jan. 4 would be the deadline on two major vaccinatio­n mandates: for health-care workers and employees of companies with payrolls exceeding 100. It should stick to this plan and ignore the screams of protest.

Will Democrats be able to turn their fortunes around if they push forward on their agenda and hang tough on vaccines? I don’t know. But they’ll certainly fail if they respond to Tuesday’s setbacks by curling up into a defensive ball.

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