The sky’s the limit

When you can’t keep up with prices

“Are you better off than you were four years ago?” Jimmy Carter didn’t have much of an answer for voters when that line was thrown out. Ronald Reagan had summed up his campaign in one question of less than a dozen words. And the country answered Mr. Reagan clearly in November 1980.

Similar questions, if not the same exact one, have been asked by countless politicians since. And almost anyone walking into a grocery store in Marked Tree or a gas station in Beebe in recent days would probably say no. When did bacon go over $5?!?! How come it costs

$75 to fill up?!?!

On Thursday, federal officials announced that the Gross Domestic Product for the U.S. fell 1.4% in the first quarter of 2022. According to CNBC, federal officials cited declines in fixed investments, defense spending and a record trade imbalance as possible reasons for the drop.

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics, told CNBC that he believes the drop is temporary.

“This is noise, not signal. The economy is not falling into recession,” Mr. Shepherdson said. The rest of us hope he’s right. Or turns out right, whether or not his reasoning keeps up.

But he’s not the only one to work in the dismal science. Other economists disagree. Or may possibly disagree. For example, Simona Mocuta of State Street Global Advisors told CNBC that the numbers may be a harbinger of more bad news to come.

“In retrospect, this could be seen as a pivotal report. It reminds us of the reality that growth has been great, but things are changing and they won’t be as great going forward,” she said.

(What he wouldn’t give, Harry Truman said, for a one-armed economist! He was so tired of having all of his economic advisers say, “On the one hand this, on the other hand that.”)

This past week’s numbers were in contrast to a 6.9% gain to end the fourth quarter, which means the economy, in real numbers, slowed down 8.3% in three months.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics also reported last week that prices for nearly every major item went up from February 2021 to February 2022:

Consumer prices for food up 8.8%.

Energy prices up 32%.

Gas prices up 48%. Electricity up 11%.

Natural gas up 21.6%.

Prices for housing up 5%.

Inflation is often defined as too many dollars chasing too few goods — or too many politicians spending too much money.

On Feb. 5, 1981, President Reagan gave an address to the nation in which he laid out the issue of inflation and spending.

“We know now that inflation results from all that deficit spending. Government has only two ways of getting money other than raising taxes. It can go to the money market and borrow, competing with its own citizens and driving up interest rates, which it has done, or it can print money, and it’s done that. Both methods are inflationary.”

President Reagan was correct more than 40 years ago and remains correct today. For the record, he also said in that address that the damage left to future generations would be real, even if his generation wasn’t around to see it.

“We can leave our children with an unrepayable massive debt and a shattered economy, or we can leave them liberty in a land where every individual has the opportunity to be whatever God intended us to be. All it takes is a little common sense and recognition of our own ability. Together, we can forge a new beginning for America.”

He helped do exactly that. Where is similar leadership and economic common sense today?