Benchmarks may give clues to international travel’s return
When people ask me that question, my snarky response is, “Beats me.” When I check my crystal ball for the straight info on the future of coronavirus restrictions, it doesn’t even show one bar. At best, I can highlight some of the guideposts that can help your planning.
Vaccination: You may not all agree, but my take is that nobody should even think about starting an international trip or even a long domestic trip until at least two weeks after completion of a COVID-19 vaccination process. Given the current vaccination schedule estimates, that could mean mid to late summer as the earliest for many low-priority travelers.
But even successful vaccination is not an “open sesame” for international travel. As I read the medical sources, vaccination largely prevents you from getting sick from the virus, but it may not prevent you from spreading it. So far, only a handful of small countries have even developed nominal exemptions, but most still require tests, and most currently exclude travelers from the U.S.
Tests: According to press reports, the CDC is “actively looking” at mandatory pre-flight COVID-19 tests for all air travel within the U.S. Airlines are generally opposed, but CDC has a lot of clout these days. And even if CDC does not mandate tests for domestic flying, most international destinations are requiring negative tests taken within three days of departure. Some also require tests on arrival, as well.
I’ve seen some industry speculation about how long tests might be required, and most “experts” seem
to think you’ll need tests until the COVID-19 virus is almost completely tamed. Even if infections may be down, complete safety might require testing into 2022 and beyond.
In addition to the hassles, tests entail a real cost barrier. Most seem to cost somewhere around $80 to $100, but some go much higher and only a few go as low as $50. Departure and arrival tests at both ends of the trip can be a substantial added burden to the travel budget. Clearly, the travel industry desperately needs widespread deployment of a cheap, fast virus test — and it’s not even close yet.
Isolation and quarantine: Beyond vaccinations and tests, quarantines can really be trip-busters. Currently, most of the countries that allow travelers from the U.S. at all require quarantine after arrival. The typical duration is 14 days, although some countries reduce that to five days after a negative test on arrival.
Although degrees of enforcement vary, the current trend is to the rigorous side. Canada currently doesn’t allow travelers from the U.S. at all, but new rules for travelers from countries on the allowable list require a test on arrival, a three-day wait for results in an “approved” hotel, then a self-quarantine
for 14 days with “increased surveillance.” The Canadian government estimates that complying with its quarantine requirements can cost each traveler up to $2,000 Canadian (about $US1,570). Canada has also banned all cruise ships until 2022. Similarly, the U.K. press reports that the government is buying out “thousands” or roomnights at airport hotels for mandatory and supervised quarantines for travelers from high-risk areas.
In many ways, making sure you don’t get caught in a quarantine may be the most important determinant of when you can travel. And, for now, there’s no way to estimate when any individual country may eliminate quarantine requirements. In an unexpected flare-up, new quarantines can crop up on short notice. You may be into 2022 before the chance of a quarantine becomes acceptably low.
The take-away: Clearly, if you want to minimize your risk, you’re probably looking to 2022 as the earliest time for Asia or Europe and maybe 2022 for a cruise. But there’s no risk in planning an earlier trip, provided you can cancel all your arrangements without having to pay any big nonrefundable deposits or face cancellation penalties.