U.S. Supreme Court will play a role, too
While legal issues on abortion rights are being decided in Florida courts, the fate of the 15-week ban will be affected by what happens in the nation’s capital.
Two scenarios are plausible, but only one would affect Florida’s abortion rights.
The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule this month on whether to uphold a 15-week abortion ban in Mississippi. Its ruling on that Mississippi law could strike down the landmark Roe v. Wade case that has guaranteed the right to abortion in the United States for decades.
For Florida, that only matters if the U.S. Supreme Court strikes down Mississippi’s ban. If it says the 15-week ban is unconstitutional under federal law, then Florida’s new abortion law would be unconstitutional as well.
Of course, if the U.S. Supreme Court rules to uphold Mississippi’s 15-week ban, then Florida’s ban is constitutional under federal law, but that decision does not indicate whether the law violates the right to privacy protected by the Florida Constitution. Virelli said that determination would ultimately be left to the Florida Supreme Court.
A leaked draft opinion in the Supreme Court case indicated justices could use the Mississippi case to overturn the landmark Roe v. Wade that established the right to an abortion in the United States. At least 18 states either have kept pre-Roe v. Wade abortion bans in place or have passed so-called “trigger” laws to ban abortion the moment Roe v. Wade is overturned.
Florida does not have a “trigger” law. However, if Roe v. Wade were overturned, there would be nothing stopping legislators from banning abortion completely in the state.
“Unless things go unexpectedly, Roe v. Wade will be overturned before July 1,” Jarvis said. “In Florida, ultimately, whatever happens with Roe, the question of abortion will have to go to the Florida Supreme Court, and when it gets there, I have no doubt there will be no state right to have an abortion.
“The bottom line is sooner or later abortion will be illegal in Florida.”