How will UCF’s first season likely play out?
UCF football is breaking new ground as it enters the Big 12 Conference.
The move to a bigger conference means stiffer competition and higher expectations for the youngest member of a Power Five conference.
But what are realistic expectations for the Knights, who leave the AAC, in their first season?
UCF was predicted to finish eighth in the Big 12 Football Media Preseason Poll. They’ll face five teams ranked ahead of them, and four projected to place below them.
A further breakdown of UCF’s schedule and what to expect:
Tough road slate
Going on the road in conference play is tough for most programs, but UCF wasn’t done any favors with its schedule. Three of its five road games come against teams projected to finish in the top four in the Big 12 poll.
In UCF’s first Big 12 matchup on Sept. 23, they head to Manhattan to face defending Big 12 champion Kansas State. The Wildcats, who went 10-4 (7-2 Big 12), including 5-2 at home, were predicted to finish second.
The Knights also go on the road after a bye week to face Oklahoma and former UCF quarterback Dillon Gabriel on Oct. 21. In the Sooners’ first season with Brent Venables as coach, they were 6-7 (3-6 Big 12), finishing under .500 for the first time since 1998. With another year under Venables and a consensus top-10 recruiting class, they figure to improve.
Oklahoma, which went 4-2 at home last season, was projected to finish third.
In UCF’s final road game, it’ll face Texas Tech (8-5, 5-4 Big 12) on Nov. 18. The Red Raiders, who were 6-1 at home, are predicted to finish fourth. They finished the last season with four straight wins in Joey McGuire’s first season as coach.
The Knights also go on the road to face Kansas on Oct. 7 and Cincinnati on Nov. 4.
The Jayhawks started 5-0, but an injury to quarterback Jalon Daniels against TCU flipped the season on its head. The junior missed the final seven games as his team went 1-6.
Daniels is the 2023 preseason Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year.
Cincinnati (9-4, 6-2 AAC) enters the Big 12 with Scott Satterfield as its coach after Luke Fickell left for the same job at Wisconsin.
Boise State also will be a stiff test on the road for UCF on Sept. 9. The Broncos lost a shootout in Orlando in 2021, 36-31.
Home sweet home
Things seemingly ease up at FBC Mortgage Stadium.
Kent State on Aug. 31 and Villanova on Sept. 16 are games the Knights should win handily. In conference play at home, they’ll face Baylor on Sept. 30, West Virginia on Oct. 28, Oklahoma State on Nov. 11 and Nov. 25 vs. Houston.
Baylor will mark the first home game in the Big 12. The Bears are a year removed from winning the Big 12 and went 6-7 (4-5 Big 12) last season.
Oklahoma State, which played Baylor in the 2021 Big 12 championship game, had a letdown in 2022, going 7-6 (4-5). The Cowboys struggled on the road last season, going 1-4.
Houston was 8-5 (5-3 in AAC) in 2022. The Cougars played better at home than on the road, going 4-2.
West Virginia had a disappointing season, going 5-7 (3-6 in Big 12).
Analysis
How UCF fares in its first six games will set the tone. A 3-0 start will give the Knights some breathing room heading into conference play, while going 2-1 makes a path to bowl eligibility murkier.
How UCF fares against Kansas State, Baylor and Kansas will show where they stand among the Big 12. Going on the road to face defending Big 12 champs in their first conference game is tough, but Baylor and Kansas are winnable games. Going 2-1 or 1-2 in competitive games would be a good start in conference play.
In the remaining six conference matchups, if UCF can go 3-3 or 4-2, they should finish 6-6 or 7-5. Finishing at or above .500 is nothing to scoff at for the Knights in their inaugural season.