Does Bowles and Mayfield’s future hang in the balance?
TAMPA — Years from now, this game will look like any other in a mostly unremarkable season.
No better, no worse than the week before or the week after. The opponent isn’t special, the roster is unchanged and the vibe is barely measurable.
But you’ll know better. Today’s game against the Titans feels like a turning point in Tampa Bay’s season. Win this game, and optimism for a division title and a fourth consecutive postseason appearance extends to Thanksgiving and possibly beyond. Lose this game, and it could set in motion a series of franchise-changing decisions.
The Bucs will never say that publicly. They may not even admit it privately. But it’s hard to see how five losses in a row and a 3-6 record wouldn’t cause ownership to start thinking seriously about the team’s direction.
The status of coach Todd Bowles will, and should, become an open question. Personally, I think Tampa Bay’s problems have more to do with the salary cap and the roster than the head coach’s decisions, but Bowles’ track record does not afford him the benefit of the doubt.
This game will be his 90th as a head coach (not counting his interim stint in Miami), and Bowles has 35 victories. In the past quarter-century, there have only been a couple of head coaches (Doug Marrone and Dom Capers) who have gotten six or more full seasons as a head coach with a winning percentage below .400. Bowles would be in line to be the third.
So how many wins will it take to secure his job for next year? I’m not sure the number matters. I think it’s more a question of hope. Do the Bucs do enough, beginning Sunday, to allow the Glazers to advertise hope when it comes to selling season tickets in 2024? Because here’s the thing: Bowles is not the only person with an uncertain future walking the halls at One Buc Place.
Quarterback Baker Mayfield has resurrected his career during his two-month stint as a Bucs starter. His numbers are solid, not great, but he’s shown he can be a quality quarterback in the right set of circumstances. And he’s clearly outperformed his one-year, $4 million contract.
For the Bucs, that’s good and bad news. Mayfield has given them a chance to win, but he’s also put himself in line for a bigger paycheck next season. How big? Ryan Tannehill turned a one-year, $2 million tryout with Tennessee into a four-year, $118 million extension after having a career season in 2019. Mayfield isn’t going to get that kind of money, but it suggests he’s got some leverage on his side.
More than half the quarterbacks in the NFL are making more than $20 million annually. Would the Bucs want to commit to that when coming off a losing season with Mike Evans, Devin White, Lavonte David and Antoine Winfield Jr. all pending free agents?
If the Bucs lose to the Titans and head into December with a record around 4-7, do they finally give Kyle Trask a chance to prove what he can do? Because if he’s not starting for a losing team with a free agent-to-be at quarterback, it’s an indictment of Tampa Bay’s lack of confidence in his future.