Gas prices fall, overcoming storm-driven demand

The recent rise in Metro Orlando’s gas prices seems to be giving way to the kind of slide that’s more typical for this time of year.

Pushed by high demand as Hurricane Matthew approached Florida and perhaps upheld by oil-pricing issues, the average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline around Orlando hit a recent high of $2.21 last week, according to travel club AAA. By Monday, it had slipped to $2.19.

The trend could continue a while longer, AAA analysts said.

“Gas prices typically follow a downward trend through the final months of the year,” AAA spokesman Mark Jenkins said. “Last year, the national average dropped about 25 cents from Columbus Day through Thanksgiving. During that time, oil prices fell almost $10 a barrel. A drop like that is less likely to occur this year, as the price of oil will likely hold steady at around $50 a barrel until OPEC’s meeting next month.”

Monday’s average in Orlando was up 12 cents from a month earlier and 14 cents from a week earlier.

With other regions of the country unaffected by the hurricane, the national average had fallen 15 straight days through Sunday for a 4-cent drop to $2.22, relatively flat monthover-month and year-over-year. Florida’s price averaged $2.25 — up 10 cents month-over-month and, according to AAA analysts, in line with market conditions.

Orlando’s gas prices for Oct. 23 in recent years have ranged widely, according to GasBuddy historical data, as low as $2.07 last year and as high as $3.53 in 2012.

“If OPEC ... cuts production, expect this winter’s gas prices to stay higher than last year,” GasBuddy analyst Patrick DeHaan said in a release. “If OPEC doesn’t cut, gas prices would likely drop in many areas across the country. It’s very difficult to gauge given the agendas of various oil producing countries, but by and large don’t expect gas prices this winter to drop as low as last year, and certainly don’t expect next summer’s gas prices to be as low as this year.”

Prices for West Texas Intermediate crude oil were flat last week amid reactions to the possibility of an OPEC output agreement, AAA said in a release, mentioning rumors that Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak intends to conduct several meetings with OPEC countries about freezing oil output amid weak prices. OPEC countries’ next formal meeting is set for November 30.

Traders continue to grapple with uncertainty as to whether OPEC can meet its production targets and rebalance the market, AAA said.