Things fall apart: Democrats’ future fraught with peril
Many Democrats are salivating, certain that Hillary Clinton will be moving into 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. They’re also betting on a slim majority in the U.S. Senate. Some even dare to dream of a razor-thin margin in the House of Representatives.
It would be premature to uncork the champagne. And Democrats would be tempting fate. They even might be wise to hide their glee over the brewing civil war within the GOP. If victorious on Nov. 8, Democrats might want to be magnanimous. The shoe could soon be on the other foot.
The reality that Democratic leaders have foolishly avoided is their own insurgency. A certain Vermont senator’s followers — call them the “Sandernistas” — were beaten, but certainly not broken. The strength of Bernie Sanders’ insurgency during the presidential primaries was comparable to Donald Trump’s.
Even with the full might of the Democratic Party behind her, Hillary Clinton was unable to force Sanders into an unconditional surrender, despite thoroughly beating him in terms of both pledged delegates and votes cast. Instead, Sanders secured huge concessions from Clinton in the form of the “most progressive party platform in the history of the United States.”
Sanders’ supporters view this platform as a contract between their own movement and the larger Democratic Party. For the Sandernistas, loyalty is given to their ideology — progressivism — rather than the party. Like the members of Republicans’ pesky Tea Party, they view any moderation not as a necessary legislative compromise, but as high treason to the cause.
The Sandernistas will expect full implementation of the party platform. They shouldn’t get their hopes up. Consider President Obama during his first two years in office. Despite enjoying majorities in U.S. House and Senate, the “public option” never materialized, and his Affordable Care Act almost died in committee.
Hillary Clinton will not enjoy the same majorities as Obama. Quite likely, she’ll have to deal with a Republican House to pass legislation.
To make the future more fraught, the 2018 midterms are shaping up to be a bloodbath for Democrats. Twenty-five Democrats will be up for re-election — and many of them in Republican strongholds, such as North Dakota or Indiana. For these red-state Democrats, supporting a social and economic agenda with the Sanders seal of approval would give their Republican challengers a valuable opening.
How the Sandernistas react will prove crucial to the future of both the Democratic Party and the country. Considering how unforgiving the Bernie faithful were to Clinton’s changing positions, there is no reason to believe that they will be any more merciful to the red-state Democrats. The Sandernistas will not view vacillations as political necessity, but as ideological betrayal. They may conclude that Democrats must be purged of heretics to become truly “progressive,” and adopt a favorite tactic of the Tea Party: primary challenges.
In many states, the conditions are ripe for this sort of primary challenge. Consider North Dakota’s junior senator, Heidi Heitkamp. To survive politically in North Dakota, Heitkamp has adopted positions that are incredibly popular within her state, such as fracking, but are despised by the Bernie crowd. Although Heitkamp supported Clinton during the presidential primary, Bernie Sanders won the North Dakota caucus by a margin of 40 percent. During a midterm primary, when only the most zealous voters turn out, it is not out of the realm of possibility for a Sandernista to defeat Heitkamp.
The Republican Party lost some winnable races in 2010 and 2012 after Tea Party insurgents muscled out establishment Republicans, and the same could happen to the Democrats. In this case, the greatest casualty would mean an increase the gridlock in Washington. The same sort of paralysis that has crippled Republican lawmakers — a fear that compromise would produce a primary challenger — could grip the Democrats under President Clinton.
Whatever centrist consensus remains in Washington would collapse into a shouting match between the left and the right. As William Butler Yeats wrote, “Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold.”