Analyzing the reasons for growing deficit.

Amid all the clamor surrounding the homestretch of the race for the White House, an important update on the health of the federal budget probably escaped the attention of most Americans. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated that the deficit — the gap between federal spending and revenues — rose sharply for the budget year that ended Sept. 30. Why did the red ink rise, and what should the presidential candidates do about it? We recently posed these questions to Robert Bixby, the executive director of the Concord Coalition, a bipartisan budget watchdog organization. An excerpt follows. A longer version, also with comments from Concord’s national political director, Phil Smith, and a video, are at orlandosentinel.com/ opinion. Q: The CBO’s number for last year’s deficit for was $587 billion. What’s the significance of that total? A: ... [F]or the first time since 2009, the budget deficit has gone up. So it was $418 billion last year, rising to $587 billion. It’s interesting to ask why that’s happening, because the economy is recovering . ... [S]pending went up by about $127 billion ... [A]bout 80 percent of it was for Medicare, Social Security, Medicaid and interest on the [national] debt. And if you look at those four categories of spending, that’s really what’s driving the long-term budget problem. Q: Donald Trump has called for ending Obamacare. What impact would that have on the deficit? A: There are positives and negatives. There is a lot of new spending in the Affordable Care Act. There were new taxes in the Affordable Care Act. There were Medicare cuts in the Affordable Care Act. So if you repeal the whole thing, the budgetary effect is not as dramatic as people would think. You would have less spending, but you would have less taxes. And as Secretary Clinton pointed out in the last debate, if the Medicare cuts went away, then that would actually make Medicare’s finances look worse. Q: Neither candidate wants any cuts in Social Security. Clinton says she’d increase benefits. What do you think? A: Social Security cannot fund all of the benefits that it currently promises, particularly for future generations. So it’s running a cash deficit right now. … [A]nyone under the age of 50 is looking at a benefit cut [when the program’s trust fund is depleted in 2034] because the system is not financed fully. So we do have to do something. I think increased revenue can certainly be part of the solution, but again, if you’re going to expand benefits, you do have to find a way to pay for the new benefits. And so if you’re going to raise the payroll tax or raise the cap on the payroll tax to help fund the new benefits, that’s OK, but you still have to finance the existing gap. … Q: Interest rates are historically low. Should we even be worrying about borrowing right now? A: ... I know the argument is, this is the time to load up on debt. Well, we already have loaded up on debt. Maybe it’s a good time to do some infrastructure investment at these low rates. But, it also makes sense to hedge your bet a little bit by making sure that your long-term situation is in better shape. Q: What about targeting waste, fraud and abuse, as Trump has proposed? Could we balance our budget that way? A: … Not only can you not make a credible estimate of [waste, fraud and abuse], there’s no reason to think it’s growing faster than the economy, which is what’s happening with the major drivers [of our debt]. So I don’t want to give the impression that we shouldn’t fight waste, fraud and abuse. We should. We just shouldn’t kid ourselves that that’s the driving force.