The odds of more
hurricanes forming this season might increase, a forecaster reports.
WEST PALM BEACH — Odds of hurricanes forming this year in the Atlantic basin may increase because of weakerthan-expected El Niño weather conditions, said Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist with Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project.
Klotzbach has been the lead author of CSU’s widely distributed hurricane forecasts since 2006.
In early April, the university’s Tropical Meteorology Project predicted 11 named storms would form this year. Four of these storms would grow into hurricanes, two of which would strengthen into major hurricanes of Category 3, 4 or 5.
Those numbers ranked slightly lower than the historical annual averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
“At this point, perhaps we’re thinking we may be increasing the forecast a little bit due to a couple of reasons. In our early April outlook, we thought a weak to potentially moderate El Niño was coming. That’s warmer-than-normal water in the eastern and central tropical Pacific,” Klotzbach said Friday at the Governor’s Hurricane Conference in West Palm Beach.
“When that occurs, it tends to increase upper-level winds that tear apart storms trying to form in the Atlantic,” he added. “At this point, it’s looking like maybe that El Niño is going to be weaker, or perhaps not even come at all.
“So it shouldn’t have as detrimental an impact on the hurricane season. So the conditions should be more conducive for hurricane formation,” he said.
What’s more, Klotzbach said tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are warming.
“The Atlantic is looking a little more conducive than it was in early April,” he said. “So I think those two conditions, in combination, potentially warrant an increase in the seasonal forecast.”
Last year’s above-average Atlantic season produced 15 named storms, seven hurricanes and four major hurricanes. This winter, meteorologists retroactively upgraded Hurricane Otto from a Category 2 hurricane to a Category 3 major hurricane, affecting those totals.
The CSU researchers will release their next forecast on June 1 — the first day of hurricane season.
“What I say with all our seasonal forecasts is, it’s an informational tool. People are curious: They want to know how active you think the hurricane season is going to be. If you’re saying, ‘What should a person do?’ it’s only an informational tool. It’s not a preparedness tool. You need to be prepared the same every hurricane season,” Klotzbach said Friday during a conference presentation.
“There’s tons and tons of examples of inactive seasons with nasty hurricanes doing all sorts of damage,” he noted. “Alternatively, there’s seasons like 2010 where we forecast a super-active season. It was a super-active season — we got an ace on the numbers. But in the U.S., it was very, very quiet.”