Tourism numbers complicated
Complex array of factors used to track visitors coming here
The tourism marketing organizations for Orlando and Florida both reported record numbers of visitors in 2016. But how do they know? The process of calculating visitors is far from an exact science, tourism experts say.
“It’s not that somebody stays at the borders and clicks the number of people,” said Abraham Pizam, dean of the University of Central Florida’s Rosen College of Hospitality Management. “These are best estimates.”
Earlier this month, Visit Orlando announced 68 million visitors came here in 2016. That’s an increase from 2015’s 66 million, despite some indicators Central Florida hotels and theme parks may have had a lackluster year, including ho-
tel occupancy and earnings reports.
When calculating the number of tourists, Visit Orlando and other tourism marketing agencies are estimating what they call “persontrips,” since a person can travel here more than once.
Visit Orlando, which receives more than $50 million in county hotel taxes to promote the region, says it has used the same methodology for more than 25 years. The agency wouldn’t offer a report from its primary research firm or provide executives for an interview for this article.
“Analyzing Orlando’s visitation is even more complex than other destinations, and requires a significant level of local insight and analysis,” the organization said in an email.
In written responses, Visit Orlando said it primarily uses data from research company DK Shifflet and the U.S. government. Its analysis, it says, is checked against indicators such as airport traffic and hotel taxes.
DK Shifflet, a well-known firm in the tourism industry, bases its information on monthly surveys of 50,000 households.
Some experts say tourism agencies’ estimates can be off by as much as 10 percent. Visit Orlando says the margin of error for its primary data source is 1.5 percent. Its sample size is larger than most, it says, because of Orlando’s popularity.
Visit Florida, meanwhile, reported a record 112.8 million visitors from outside the state in 2016. Last month the agency warned legislators their cuts to next year’s Visit Florida budget could drop that number by almost a third.
Visit Florida says it bases its figures on airport passengers, then applies a ratio derived from two research firms to estimate tourists driving here.
Asked how it figured the Sunshine State’s tourism would drop to 80 million because of Visit Florida’s funding cut, the agency said it simply went back to 2007. That was the last time it received $25 million in state money.
Orlando, which reports the nation’s largest number of visitors, takes its tally of trips of 50-plus miles into three counties: Orange, Osceola and Seminole.
A Los Angeles Times article from 2014 said tourism officials from other cities have privately complained Orlando’s numbers are unfairly inflated by its wide geographical range.
“One could argue it is not apples to apples, but we have not called them out on that piece,” said Chris Heywood, a spokesman for New York City’s tourism marketing agency. That city counts only visitors to its five boroughs.
Visit Orlando says that not including three counties “would be an inaccurate representation of the destination, as it ignores the widely known fact that visitors to Orlando do not discriminate by county.”
Visit Orlando has reported drops in three years since 2001. It reported no growth in 2008.
In 2016, tourism indicators were a mixed bag. The industry faced challenges including the Pulse nightclub shooting, Zika fears and Hurricane Matthew.
The Walt Disney Co. throughout the year reported that domestic theme-park attendance, which also includes Disneyland in California, was either down or flat. SeaWorld Entertainment’s attendance decreased for the year, something it blamed partly on softness in the Orlando market. Universal Orlando owner Comcast Corp. does not give specifics.
Data and analytics company STR said 33.8 million room nights — for hotels only — were sold in the Orlando area. That was a 0.5 percent decrease from the previous year. Its tally includes Orange, Seminole and parts of Osceola and Lake counties.
There could be an increase in day-trippers, said Lisa Delpy Neirotti, director of George Washington University’s master’s of tourism administration program.
There were other increases: Airbnb, a growing home-rental service, reported guest growth of about 170,000 people people in the region last year. The Orange County Convention Center drew 83,000 more attendees. Orlando International Airport reported 3.1 million more passenger trips, to 41.9 million. Fiftyfive percent of those trips could be attributed to visitors, OIA says.
Orange County’s tourist development taxes increased 5.9 percent in 2016. Higher rates can affect that figure, but the tax dollars are a better indicator of the region’s overall tourism health, Pizam said. It’s easier to verify them, and overall visitor numbers don’t take into account people staying with friends or family who contribute much less to the economy, he said.
“The best predictor of all is … the numbers that come up in terms of taxes,” he said.