Orlando Sentinel

Tropical storm shows we should be prepared.

-

Storm forecaster­s have every high-tech tool you can imagine to give residents proper warning and time to prepare. That includes satellites, reconnaiss­ance aircraft, weather balloons, drones and computer models. When a storm begins brewing 1,000 miles out to sea, they’ve got color-coded paths to project where it might go.

Yes, we’ve come a long way from predicting the weather based on the Farmer’s Almanac, quirky animal behavior or our own aches and pains.

Despite the advances in meteorolog­y, forecaster­s sometimes get taken by surprise, as they were this week with the sudden developmen­t of Tropical Storm Emily, whose path and intensity they failed to foresee. The storm “really developed almost instantly,” Jessie Smith, a meteorolog­ist with the National Weather Service in Melbourne, told the Sentinel.

Emily was a reminder that high-tech tools aren’t foolproof in predicting the sudden developmen­t of tropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico, in this case caused by an unusual lateseason cool front, warm waters and low atmospheri­c pressure.

This storm also was a reminder that we are entering the historical­ly busiest portion of the six-month Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from the middle of August to mid-September.

And it was a reminder that we all must be prepared — not just home and business owners, but emergency managers and those who ensure safe passage on our roadways.

Emily had a mind of her own. She slammed South Florida with flooding rain and lashed the Gulf Coast with tropical storm winds and rain. She seemed to come from nowhere, and led Gov. Rick Scott to declare a state of emergency in 31 counties, including Orange, Seminole, Osceola, Lake, Volusia and Brevard.

The storm ended up bringing only a little rain to Central Florida. But in the Tampa Bay, Sarasota and Naples areas, Emily knocked out power to 18,000 homes and businesses.

In Miami Beach, officials thought they were prepared to minimize flooding on major roads, with their new pumps and drainage system. But city officials learned the hard way that they need a backup generator for when the power goes out. With pumps offline for about 50 minutes during the deluge, flooding was rampant on Miami Beach streets.

Forecaster­s predict we’ll see 15 named storms and eight hurricanes this season. Three hurricanes are forecast to be Category 3 or stronger. The numbers are slightly higher than was previously forecast in June. But expect the unexpected. “Every little swirl, every little low, every little thing in the Gulf of Mexico needs to be watched,” Jonathan Erdman, senior meteorolog­ist at Weather.com, told the Palm Beach Post. “I was dead wrong,” he said of Emily, this season’s fifth named storm. “This is a humbling field sometimes.”

All of which should be enough of a warning that now is the time to make sure you’re prepared for what could lie ahead. Be sure your roof is in good shape. Make sure the trees around your home are trimmed. Refill the propane tank on your grill.

Inside, create an emergency stash in a plastic bin containing water, nonperisha­ble foods, flashlight­s, batteries and other essentials. Make a plan for what to do with your pets, particular­ly if you have to evacuate. Put important papers somewhere safe and dry.

Central Florida was fortunate last year to escape the full wrath of Hurricane Matthew when it took a slight wobble to the east as it churned up the Atlantic Coast. Hopefully, we will be just as lucky this hurricane season — or at least have plenty of notice if there is a major storm. But don’t count on it.

Let’s hope for the best, and prepare for the worst.

Newspapers in English

Newspapers from United States