Payton question arrives in mailbag
Interacting with readers is one of the best perks of my job.
You offer story ideas I haven’t thought of. You prompt me to refine my opinions. And most of all, I’m thankful that you’re reading and I’m thankful that you care about what my Orlando Sentinel colleagues and I write.
So let’s expand the giveand-take.
If you send me Orlando Magic and NBA questions over Twitter, I’ll occasionally answer them here and on the Sentinel’s BasketBlog — two places where I’m not confined to a 140-character limit.
The primary ground rule: Keep your questions clean.
That doesn’t mean you can’t ask pointed questions. Just employ common courtesy. Please be respectful — not necessarily to me, but to the people you’re asking about and to your fellow readers. I reserve the right to ignore questions from any readers who, in rare instances, have harassed others over social media.
This will be an experiment. Let’s see how it goes.
We’ll begin with a question about the Magic’s incumbent starting point guard.
asks: “How will Elfrid Payton play this year? And what do you think the price range of his extension will be?”
Few, if any, returning Magic players have both tantalized frustrated as much as Payton has over the last three years.
Last season provides a perfect example.
Payton often struggled in the Magic’s first 58 games, prompting coach
to take Payton out of the starting lineup on two separate occasions.
Some of Payton’s problems stemmed from the lineups the Magic employed. Payton performs his best when the Magic push the ball upcourt in transition, but the Magic slowed themselves down by playing two big men simultaneously. And the decision to play subpar shooters on the wings,
and reduced Payton’s room to operate and accentuated Payton’s own poor long-range shooting.
But Payton flourished on offense after the Magic traded big man acquired 3-point
and threat COMMENTARY moved Gordon to power forward. The faster pace and improved outside shooting on the wings brought out Payton’s strengths and helped Payton do what he does best: get to the rim. After the All-Star break, Payton recorded five triple-doubles and averaged 13.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, 8.4 assists and only 2.5 turnovers per game. He also made 50.8 percent of his overall shot attempts.
Those statistics should provide a baseline for the season ahead, especially since Vogel likely will keep Gordon at power forward.
But numbers don’t tell the full story.
At 6-feet-4 and 185 pounds, Payton has all the physical tools to be an elite defensive point guard.
And yet, he often struggles to contain the basketball and to negotiate screens.
There were many reasons why the Magic underwhelmed on defense last season. But for the Magic to improve on that end of the floor in 2017-18, Payton must improve. He has to set the tone.
The reality is, even after three seasons, the Magic still don’t know what Payton’s ceiling is or how likely he is to reach that ceiling consistently.
Perhaps no player has suffered more from the constant turnover at the head-coaching spot than Payton has. In three seasons, he has played for four coaches:
and Vogel. Youngsters, especially young point guards, need stability and clear direction. Skiles never believed in Payton, which hurt Payton’s confidence. And it’s fair to ask whether Vogel fully endorses Payton; after all, Vogel benched Payton on two separate occasions last season.
You’re right: The Magic and Payton are eligible to agree to a contract extension up until the day before the 2017-18 regular season starts.
But largely because of the questions surrounding Payton’s game — most notably, his defense and his outside shooting — I anticipate that the extension deadline will pass without an agreement and expect that Payton will become a restricted free agent in the summer of 2018.
His price range in restricted free agency would depend partly on how he plays in the year ahead. Can he become a defensive force? Will he improve his outside shot? Can he upgrade his feel for the game?
Just know this, though: If current trends hold, there will be a limited amount of money available for free agents next summer. As ESPN’s
and wrote recently, only nine teams are projected to have cap space in July, and as many as 10 teams could be paying the luxury tax. Next summer could an awful time to be a free agent.
Thanks for your question, Harrison!